This should be easy

This should be easy.

Attached: balls.jpg (320x269, 30.49K)

50%, either it is or it isn't

You think you have a 50% chance to win the lottery?

>take all three boxes
>sell gold and silver
Who fucking cares about probabilities.

50%, once you take one gold ball the third all silver box is eliminated from the probability. Thus two boxes containing at least one gold ball.

2/3 or 66%

obviously, you either win or you don't

66.67% or 2/3rds. Ö

whys that?

You picked 1 out of 3 gold balls, each of which is equally likely and 2 of which lead you to picking another gold ball.
2/3

If there is also a chance that they made a mistake and you win doesnt count, would it mean your chance of winning is now only 33% because there are 3 options?

>You can't see into any of the boxes
Yeah, but my Jew snout can smell 'em
100%

no, you picked a box, and THEN you found out it had gold in it. thus in statistics your next pick is only possibly that it is the left or middle box. 2 boxes, equal chance of gold or silver, 50%

1/3

Explanation: the box you chose is either GG or GS. There are three possible balls that give you a gold ball. Two of those are in the GG box. Therefore 2 out of 3, or 2/3rds, or 66.67% chance

this comparison is mistaken with the goat and the show host question, the interesting point with that situation is that the host has to choose the option with the worse prize

1/3 - chance to pick a box with 2 gold
1/2 - chance to pick gold after already picking gold

exactly

These ones really show you who the retards are. Pro tips guys:
If youre new to this or any question and the answer isnt what you intuitively thought
>some smart people
Become interested. Learn answer and how it works. Expand your horizon
>smart people who are bad at math or dont give a fuck about this
Just admit you dont understand, or pay it no mind.
>absolute fucking retards
Declare your answer was correct and assert that everyones stupid but you.

nah bruh, its 2/3 because you dont know which gold coin you picked, since there are 3 gold coins

>wall of text
>'pro tip'
>no answer

Sorry to tell you this, but this is not up for debate, this problem is over 100 years old and the answer is known, is 2/3, what we are discussing here is wether or not you will get it.

the first ball doesnt matter anymore.

after you took out the first gold ball, the second one can be either silver or gold. the thing is you pick a box, and you have to stick with it. if you could switch boxes i think you would be right.

>no, you picked a box, and THEN you found out it had gold in it. thus in statistics your next pick is only possibly that it is the left or middle box. 2 boxes, equal chance of gold or silver, 50%
Not all three boxes are equally likely. You picked a box at random. Then you found out it had at least a gold ball in it. So you know you picked either the GG box or the GS box. But the GG box is twice as likely because it has twice the number of gold balls in it. This is not rocket science. It's statistics 101

40%, or 2/5 chance.