Carmack is obviously a very smart dude, so why is he so confident about self-driving cars...

Oh fuck off with this excuse. A train track can go anywhere a highway can go. It's not the fault of trains the DOT gave up on building rail infrastructure and, worse, started tearing them up to make shitty dirt roads.
Helicopters are garbage for moving tons of cargo, trucks are far more expensive per mile. Rail is the cheapest way to move cargo bay far - we just need to build more rail. I live in an area where I am just 14 miles from a city and could have gotten there in 14 miles 100+ years ago but for the fact that the government ripped the rail out and replaced it with slow af dirt road. Now I have to go around the mountains and it takes 2.5 hours...
Trains could have solved so many problems. It could even fix the highway problems. Imagine for personal transportation a bunch of small rollercoasters. Those could get you anywhere you want to go and take up a fraction of the space.

The keyword here is "commercially", and while Carmack is a really smart person he still a techie. There are some legislative issues that will prevent commercial adoption of fully autonomous vehicles.
I honestly think that while they might be commercially sold, adoption would be non existant, after all who pays for when the car inevitable crashes or murders someone.

>To me it seems obvious that you need general artificial intelligence for level 5, and I doubt that general artificial intelligence will be created by 2030.
holy shit you're a fucking retarded, never post about this again.

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>Oh fuck off with this excuse. A train track can go anywhere a highway can go
Sure, except it has a pre-designed path and if you want to go to a place that is not there, you have to take another train and another. Not to mention that these connections may have different time schedules and be placed in awkward places, making the trip even longer and less convenient.
Or I can just get into the car and go exactly where I want and not where the most amount of people in this time slot and area were going when the tracks and schedule were first devised.

Also, relying on trains being on time outside of maybe Switzerland is fucking bullshit. I was late so many times in Germany you wouldn't believe.

> Helicopters are garbage for moving tons of cargo
Aren't we talking about personal transportation?

> Rail is the cheapest way to move cargo bay far
And it's actively used for that. Your point?

> Rollercoasters
> Get you anywhere
Are you high?

In a city built specifically for modern driving AI it probably would work really well. In the US where we have the absolute worst city and road infrastructure known to mankind, we're nowhere close with current tech

Different user but we should ban cars in cities of >250K. Trucks/moving vehicles/emergency allowed.

Maybe he knows it's bullshit, but he stands to make more than $10k by publicly appearing to be confident in the technology.

Level 5 self driving means it can drive anywhere that a human driver can without intervention. It's basically a robot chauffeur. This, to me, means that it would pass the Nilsson/employment test for AGI. I just don't see it happening. Even the basic prerequisite of being able to accurately understand dictated instructions in every human language won't be achieved by 2030.

>Sure, except it has a pre-designed path and if you want to go to a place that is not there, you have to take another train and another.
Highways have predesigned paths too.

>Not to mention that these connections may have different time schedules and be placed in awkward places, making the trip even longer and less convenient.
Yeah... and highways have traffic congestion and intersections that slow everyone down.
Here's an idea - you load your cars onto trains for long distances and then unload them after you're done.

>Aren't we talking about personal transportation?
Helicopters are slow though. Planes, maybe, but then you need airports.

>And it's actively used for that. Your point?
We need higher speed rail and more of it.

>Are you high?
You mentioned that cars can get you more places, but I've never seen a car that can get you where a rollercoaster can. The idea that you can't do crazy forms of transportation with rail is ridiculous.

>Carmack is obviously a very smart dude,
he thinks he is. you ask him, he'll tell you.
> I doubt that general artificial intelligence will be created by 2030.
we already have it, but it's shit. 8 years.. will it still be shit? yes. it will still be shit.
>general ai
>general
>A train track can go anywhere a highway can go
>fuck your HILLS and shit. trains are magical!
this is what communists want people to believe. do you even know how trains fucking work? jesus fucking christ this board is brain damaged. you can't simply add a rail line next to a freeway like it's an equivelent form of transportation.

Yes, fuck your hills. Rail is far cheaper per mile to build than asphalt highway and lasts far longer. It's also easy to maintain because a maintenance locomotive can automatically ride up to any damaged rail and replace it.
>muh grade
Affects semi-trucks too, dumbfuck. Difference is rail is much narrower and you can load boring machines onto rail to drill right through mountains and lay the track at the same time. Rail bridges are cheaper to construct too.

>Highways have predesigned paths too.
True, except you can choose which ones you follow and are not constrained by the train's predefined path. You can also go into any part of the city and not 1 or 2 train stops.

> Yeah... and highways have traffic congestion and intersections that slow everyone down.
And this is a point against cars how? If it's self driven you just have to sleep a bit more (also, if all vehicles are AI driven, there are no longer "ghost" congestions and/or accidents).

> you load your cars onto trains for long distances and then unload them after you're done
So you get the worst of both worlds? Now you not only have all the issues of getting from A to B on a train, as well as having to wait until the next train (at least 30 minutes in the best case scenario) but also giant congestions on and off the train.

> Helicopters are slow though
Up to 400km/h. If you are so inclined, just use one of those tiny ass motorized gliders that look like VW beetle with a wing.

> We need higher speed rail and more of it.
Why? Cargo doesn't care about an hour difference and all the large cities/production facilities are already connected.

> I've never seen a car that can get you where a rollercoaster can.
Is this AI generated? A car can go wherever there is ground. Some can also go in water.

carmack is old and his fame kruggered him into thinking he is an authority on anything other than his shitty games
elon lied about that too like 5 years ago (promising fully autonomous self driving cars appearing last year afair).
ofc its bullshit and you cant predict a discovery, but in this case he's also predicting an EXTREMELY RAPID indursty adoption, which means he's a complete retard
give me $10000 instead, and it better be rn

i love my trains, but you really didn't think it through. you can't just add lines along existing corridors without those lines being considered from the initial planning stages. hills, bridges, tunnels etc.etc. all need to be done before hand. or, you could really piss people off compulsory acquire land. the other major problem overlooked is nationalisation of rail networks. it was a disaster in the uk, it's created a market monopoly in the usa with a handful of operators owning thousands of miles of rail lines. who would own the tracks? it's only going to benefit some nigger corporation unless the rail systems are completely owned by the government.

>True, except you can choose which ones you follow and are not constrained by the train's predefined path. You can also go into any part of the city and not 1 or 2 train stops.

God damn this is a motherfucking dumb non-objection that isn't even true. It's like you don't realize tracks can be switched. Switching trains is not hard ffs. You have to get out of your car every time you fuel up.

>And this is a point against cars how? If it's self driven you just have to sleep a bit more (also, if all vehicles are AI driven, there are no longer "ghost" congestions and/or accidents).

Of course it's a point against cars. You end up being surrounded by idle pollution and in stop and go traffic. It takes you twice as long to get where you're going in rush hour - and if there are any accidents you're fucked.

>So you get the worst of both worlds? Now you not only have all the issues of getting from A to B on a train, as well as having to wait until the next train (at least 30 minutes in the best case scenario) but also giant congestions on and off the train.

30 minutes best case, lol. No, the best case is one minute. There is zero technical reason you can't have an unhitched car that will hold vehicles, be brought up to speed with the next train and then attach to it without the train even stopping - and you could sort the rail cars based on their destination.

>Is this AI generated? A car can go wherever there is ground. Some can also go in water.

Lol fuck off, cars can't go fucking anywhere.

>I just wish we went with some self-driving tiny helicopter instead or something.
This is actually a much easier problem to solve than Level 5 self-driving. There's less stuff to hit in the air, and path finding is easier. Since it's a new system that offers something tangibly better than avoiding the mild inconvenience of driving themselves, people will be more willing to put up with real inconveniences as the technology establishes itself, like limited coverage, not operating during bad weather, etc. Unlike self-driving cars, I do think we'll see drone package delivery by 2030. After that, it's only a matter of time before those drones start being used to transport humans too.

No shit, to build a rail line you have to build a rail line. Stop trying to act as if this is some impossible endeavor. It was more difficult and a far bigger waste of money building the national highway system.

> duur just build it
> just ignores who will own the systems
low iq, tyrone-communist energy. you're all the same. mindless monkey men screeching so loudly yet it's the facts that really hurt your tiny monkey brains. this is why there's very little interest in new rail projects. monkeys like you can't use calculators and unable to obtain a minimum understanding of economics and business.

>muh AI tyrone AI tyrone car powered AI powered Musk-powered AI bbc powered car powered by AI sucking BBC nigger cringe faggot cringe nigger sucking faggot dick
cringe, cringe, cringe you're full of cringe.