in march of 2020 we crashed to 4k upon the announcement of the pandemic. this recovered almost immediately when fiscal stimulus was announced, rocketing btc back to pre crash levels in about 2 months.
the only winners in this market are those who take risk. the only positions left as winners this cycle will be those who brought in below 9k deep in the march 2020 crash.
the following bullrun we saw this year was entirely caused by this stimulus. look to the day of the announcement of the stimulus, it marks the exact bottom of the march 2020 crash and was the best entrypoint for this entire cycle since.
this bear market is most comparable in structure alone to jan 2014, where the market slowely bled -86% to a double bottom. this was an extremely long boring market for many many many, and came following the first massive hype for btc, where news coverage and the first huge millionaires were made.
9k will arrive over the next couple months. a rally to 28k before then is plausible, however unlikely. we will crab at 11-14k until the second 9k test before our bullrun resumes at the end of 2023.
no. this would be extremely healthy. this entire run has been a result of fiscal stimulus, that is not an argument. the dates line up exactly. the only winners will be those who purchased almost immediately after the news, before the retail caught on. 9k is reasonable
Dylan Howard
>9k will arrive over the next couple months wont happen that fast
Joshua Myers
arguments to be made either way, however weekly historical volatility is already very low. a move out of this range is coming within the next few weeks. if to the downside, it will be quick and painful
Jonathan Hughes
> talks about stimulus >thinks when you stop stimulus price of goods go back to previous levels >has zero understanding of inflation or basic macro economic principles.
NGMI. No we aren’t going back to 9k. Screencap this
Cooper Kelly
Maybe if my gox coins get dumped or saylor sells but otherwise I can see us below 17k for long. BTC being a fixed supply asset isn't going to dump that hard after all the new accumulation these past few years.
no, you're not considering the other factors in play other than stimulus. the stimulus wasnt in response to the markets, it was in response to nobody working. this means the economy is weaker than before, and the price of assets should return back to below pre stimulus levels. adjusted for inflation it would be slightly higher than pre stim levels, so 9k
Cooper Martinez
theres no reason to assume this, given the money in these markets is now controlled by institutions. these players find it too risky to treat btc like something special, hence we see it underperform during times of economic uncertainty with high inflation: something its fundamentals do not agree with. 9k would be max pain for so many investors, liquidations, convinced btc is dead. it would be healthy
Brody Young
i dont really care about what you wrote but visually that chart makes sense to me
Lucas Jones
ok???
Michael Carter
this will happen most likely congrats OP, but moon bois and ranbow chart fags refuse to see anything other than 100k btc eoy
Matthew Gutierrez
the rainbow chart is adjusted to fit each cycle every cycle. its not useful unless you are proactive in adjusting it yourself for your own predicted bottom. assuming an overfit trend will continue in future its pitiful
Lincoln Gutierrez
>Weekly RSI at absolute bottom >user think it going to dump more before scam pump
Ryan Reed
This is all true. It's all overvalued and propped up by funny money. Don't know why you dumb faggots can't see how plain it is, unless you bought in at 30k thinking it can't possibly go lower and then refused to sell thinking that Bobo was just trying to scare you talking about dropping below 20k.
Bentley Bailey
>Please don't buy right now. Yep. This is the bottom.
Connor Allen
RSI is a flawed indicator, however if you want to play that way, the rsi can stay at absolute bottom for weeks and weeks as dumping continues
Eli Myers
>its fundamentals
>he doesnt know.
Should we tell him?
Dominic Clark
you can buy whenever you like it doesnt bother me. like i said, this market is run by institutions now. this is what you all cried for, now you have it.
Christian Rogers
btc shares the fundamentals of any asset which performs during times of inflation, like gold and property, however it is not digital gold or property and they do not share all fundamentals, just the few of importance when discussing inflation. i hate the btc maxis who compare btc to gold or property, its untrue. there are select fundamentals btc shares with the two, yes, but that is as far as the comparison goes
Asher Sullivan
Actual good thread. This is how biz used to be.
Repped OP
Zachary Ross
honest question WHY do you think bullrun will resume end of 2023. what EVIDENCE and DATA supports this statement?
Nathan Richardson
Remember to ZOOOOOOOOM OUT AND CHECK THE STOCH RSI
Eli Moore
>Flawed indicator Look at btc 10 Dec 2018, 09 March 2020, 04 July 2022. Everytime when RSI weekly reach bottom a relief bounce will always happen. You need scam pump before the dump to liquidate people so it can dump even more.
