>If I had to put odds: soft landing 10%. Harder landing, mild recession, 20%, 30%. Harder recession, 20%, 30%. And maybe something worse at 20% to 30%. It is a bad mistake to say 'here is my single point forecast.'
t. JPMorgan CEO on a client call one week ago with JPMorgans wealthiest clients
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>it might go up or down
okay
Most people don't understand how banking, money or lending in the USA/West works.
We are at ceiling of where debt can take us.
Depression awaits us, whether inflationary or deflationary is up to us. They cannot do little prints during this thing and 'smooth it out' either. That's how we are here. we need hard money, even if they just commit to matching money supply to something real, like population.
This is BS but I believe it. Shits going to be weird this week.
>sell your bags so we can buy cheapies
>t. JewMorgan CEO
He'll slurp all the cheapies
He's just another bottom selling permabear,
It ends with a debt jubilee and a new digital currency, with the main goal to keep growing the economy up to that point. The money printing will continue.
I think you're wrong in the short to mid term as you're ignoring simple supply and demand. The demand for the dollar is increasing faster than they are printing it. It's purchasing power is increasing as everyone is fleeing to it over their local currencies. The US economy in comparison to its rivals is stronger (falling less, will probably avoid a recession based on your strengthening jobs market). While the rest of the world collapses around you, the US's ability to purchase goods, assets and services will increase over time until the point where the dollar as absorbed all value it can possibly absorb. When it has reached it's breaking point is when you will see some mad shit. The dollar probably has another 10-20 years left in it and the greatest melt up you have ever seen before the ponzi implodes. The past year has been dollar milkshake is playing itself out perfectly.
Pretty fucking weasely. I wonder how accurately he actually knows the truth--it's admittedly a fuzzy estimate, but if I know what's coming, he should know too.
>We are at ceiling of where debt can take us.
Not to mention layoffs and "shrinkflation"/lowering the cost of goods. That's the even more complicated ceiling. Fucking assholes. Why is this asshole still employed after 2008? How many recessions will it take before he resigns in shame.
The dollar gaining against foreign currencies is a psyop, look at inflation rates in Muttmerica and countries that already had a higher quality of life to see the true story. America is cucking the turd world but also sinking.
I understand your point about the deflationary pressure of the debt load around the world denominated in USD.
The US is not borrowing money from other countries. The US is borrowing money from its' citizens in the form of Fed purchasing of the bond market.
There are no buyers for this debt, and unloading this balance sheet is literally an apocalypse for people attempting to retire.
Without any further printing, there is enough pressure to cause havoc domestically, because we are robbing each other, breaking fath.
Breaking credit.
This is accurate and the very thing people believe will help (lots of countries owe in USD thus will give us all their stuff for dollars to pay those debts) is actually the opposite.
They will stop pricing in USD. They will stop using the dollar.
I have no doubt of that but I think you're ignoring the sheer amount of foreign buyers flooding into the USD viewing it as a safe haven propping up the bottom on the ponzi; you're not just able to dig into american pocket, it's the entire worlds now. So long as there is a flush of demand for dollars and dollar denominated debt and the US can print ad infinitum to keep their gravy train rolling. So long as this demand continues to rise then the US is safe from the consequences of it's printing (I repeat, while demand continues to rise). Remember that euro and gbp (3rd and 4th most important currencies) are collapsing and all that wealth is now spilling into dollars for the first time since ww2 and will be traded using dollar claims.
I think we are well beyond the point of no return for the dollar, no doubt and I completely agree with you there, but I disagree with the thesis this will be a deflationary collapse given the absolute hunger for free cash of those who lead industry, the worlds hunger for dollars and the past 14 years showing up how willing government is provide dollars for free and to print to fund their own political aspirations. I think this flush of demand will be seen as a green light for those in charge to print trillions more over the coming few years. They can easily divert any potential crisis in the US economy with printing and have the dollar come off scot free so long as conditions worsen in Europe, the 3rd world and so long as there is value left to soak up into USD.
After every recession, chase got bigger. I’m stuck with that bitch after they took over my wamu account. Fuck that boomer douchebag.
Oh and they will justify the printing as calling it a good thing for the world and that a strong dollar is bad for business, (us can't sell abroad anymore) bad for economies of allies etc etc instead of showing some restraint and trying to somewhat balance the books with this new found wealth. Asset prices will go through the fucking roof as that is where the inflation will be felt the most. Anyone getting out of assets right now is playing Russian roulette with their future. I can't see them continuing to hike or be stringent with the money printer as demand for USD continues to go fucking mental; it's a complete 180 from their thesis of the past 14 years and it will cause untold pain to America while they have the ability to print more.
they aren't printing any money now
Those countries that are losing wealth to the USA will not participate in their own decline the way you think they will.
Kek He literally said 10% chance of it going up.
Don't be naive. Biden just greenlit 750 billion worth of spending. Where do you think that comes from? Taxes when debt burden is up from next to nothing to around 30% of tax income (this figure is eyeballing based on a spreadsheet I seen a couple weeks back, around 10% rates is 100% of US tax on debt servicing atm)?
They have no option. It's a digital + globalized economy. The wealth of Europe is fleeing as we speak and there is nothing those nations can do to stop it short of completely locking down trade with foreign entities. Europe is reliant on outsiders for food and energy; they cannot do that and simply put, are completely fucked. The death sentence was issues when they sold out their ability to produce anything to the 3rd world and now they are at the mercy of US monetary policy. Tightening = end of Europe, end of the 3rd world, destruction of US economy (debt burden is too high to reasonably tighten) rise of China. It's (probably) not a pill the US is willing to swallow in the mids of Taiwan tensions and Russia probing the viability of a proper invasion of Europe. Money printing lets thing remain strong, at least in the short term.
it isnt a digital economy, we really need food, water and energy, this bullshit bubble and all these fake jobs are making people believe complete horseshit.
I'm sorry but the contentions you're making based on dollar demand do not negate the damage done now to retirements and the entire basic labor system in the United States.
The Armed Forces is having trouble getting people to join, I'm certain there is an economic element to that.
Wow he's just like me except I'm a retarded goy
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The fundamentals of the dollar and the US economy is irrelevant in times of panic like we are in now. All that matter is supply and demand similar to how shitcoins like dogshitvishnuinu go parabolic regardless if it's a ponzi scam. The simple fact is that even with all the dollars that have been printed, it's not enough to fulfil demand. So long as it remains strong you will be able to print and purchase your way out of trouble regardless of how fucked things are underneath as other countries are currently and increasingly desperate for dollars. The US might be fucked, but the west is comparatively more fucked and getting fucked harder at a comparatively higher and higher rate and so long as these conditions continue the US is fine. As countries relying on the dollar get stronger and stabilise through the US purchasing off them more and more (allowing them to rebuild industry and their core economies) and the demand for dollars falls, that's when the chickens come home to roost for the US, not now.