We're now officially in a recession

on a scale from 1 to 10, how shocked are you?

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Most Wall Street analyst types think we'll peak on interest rate hikes by the EOY. After that, falling inflation and a mild recession will drive rates back down, spurring growth. The US economy overall still has some positive signs (low unemployment, high household net worth, strong corporate saving rates, etc.) so this would be a very strange recession if it lasted very long at all.

To be fair, this is coming from someone who reads the Wall Street Journal and trusts their analysts over internet strangers on a Hungarian apple bobbing forum

>We're now officially in a recession
why did you say this as if it were a fact? did you want to notify anyone who came to this thread that you are a retard so that they know not to believe anything else you say? just wondering why you chose to immediately discredit any further opinions you may have

>High household net worth

Lol

Lmao even

what happens if it turns out China's extreme Covid measures are because of all the spooky long covid stuff and mRNA reverse transcribe into the DNA making you a spike protein factory for life... and that US low unemployment are because boomers are retiring and too many people actually died or got injured during covid. This would mean low unemployment is just a fancy way of saying not enough workers for production to stay the same as pre 2019...

just a tinfoil thought

We've been in a recession since 11 sep 2021, everyone knows it. This press release proves it and tomorrow it'll be official.

Changing the definition last minute to say “nuh uh” is some Soviet level shit.

meh, we were overdue for a recession anyhow
we would have probably had it sometime in 2020, but COVID caused the economy to speedrun the entire dump/spike in a few months, which didn't actually help reset the broader economy at all like a proper recession is supposed to

>Changing the definition last minute to say “nuh uh” is some Soviet level shit.
So much this

what is the official definition of a recession?
how do economists evaluate the state of the business cycle?

is this one of those things where we won't know if there's a recession until it's over?

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HAHA we change the definition of economic variables every few years. Unemployment isn't even a useful indicator anymore.

You must not have read the whole blog, we're actually NOT in a recession because that isn't the definition anymore :)

We are in dump's economy now, so not at all.

2 consecutive quarters of falling real GDP

thats more than a small scamwick in the wrong direction

just saying

>there are, supposed, "people" around you who will accept this and claim that calls for a recession come from Russian sponsored Republicans trying to reelect Trump
>you just want a house for your family

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Low employment is only because businesses need extra workers to cover for those getting sick with covid, they're not a valid of economic activity.

It's the main character's friends job in nineteen eighty four
The main characters job is editing news articles from the past

>he trusts the wsj
kek

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It never was

nothing is "real" about GDP, it's never been an accurate measure of production or growth
there isn't a formal definition, recession and depression are characterized by declines in growth rates. quantifying growth rates is harder than you might expect, given that what constitutes "real growth" would be things like rate and quality of production within every sector of the economy, which is not something easily measured and certainly not by gdp
the real nuspeak is financial jargon that abstracts away statistics into shitty metrics for the purpose of promulgating narratives like this. what's really happening is the monetary system is the dying and they don't want to admit it. they want to distort and dissimulate for as long as they can while all their bullshit metrics break due to their shitty monetary policy. they are correct that there is no recession in the sense that all of the production and labor is still there. what they won't talk about are the dollar's intractable flaws that are causing inescapable inflation, in turn fucking up the supply chain

>Bro my used 2012 Sierra GMC is on Carvana for $40,000
>W-well yeah I can't sell it because then I don't have a way to get to work but just imagine the net worth bump

nobody knows what a recession is bro. Nobody knows what a woman is. There's no up or down, words don't matter.