Housing prices are about to crash as refinancing dry up

PLS CRASH

prices arent going back down, not by much, if at all. and if you think they will, riddle me this. when was the last time the price of anything dropped by much?

the "value" of houses hasnt increased at all in last 100 years. only the price. and like so many people, the majority of people on this board are confused by basic terms and knowledge. How many of you can correctly define "currency" and "money" and tell me the difference. the price of homes did not increase because the value went up. the price of homes has increased because the fed decided to print a gazillion bux. those dollars are now part of the money supply, and the price of houses (and gas, and groceries, and hydro, and even water and beans) went up to reflect this influx of fiat into the economy. yes increasing mortage rates will "cool" the market, (now it will take a month to sell your home instead of a weekend), but the actual prices arent going to decline much.

you know whats going to go up .... rents. the rents have been controlled for years. but the current rents dont reflect the cost of the house, or the new supply of a gazillion bux. as renters die, move on, leases end etc etc ...and landlords can re-evaulate the rent, rents are going to climb dramatically to reflect the new house prices.

In canada, 38% of people rent, 32% of people own thier house with no mortage, and the remaining 30% have a mortage. many mortages are locked in for years. 32% of people are completely uneffected by mortage rates, and couldnt care less what the "price" of housing is. rent is cheap, and rent is rising, and its gonna go way up.

ASKING prices are already going down.
but perhaps not an incoming crash.
6-8% mortgage will slow the price appreciation.
Or ARMs will increase and a crash could result
years down the line. If the Fed stops buying
MBS then all the MBS laced with an increased
number of ARMs will hit the market and the yield will be much higher( risk premium) further
raising loan rates.
?

Housing prices really don't crash they correct. A 5% decrease is not a crash.

Everyone here is too young to remember 2008.

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>ASKING prices are already going down.
going down to what? thats the real question. Going down by 10%. thats fuck all. going down to last winter's prices. I live on vancouver island for instance. housing prices are astronomical. you cannot buy, even a run down shack, for less then 800k .... not even one. not a fuckign cabin. Its no joke.look on realtor(dot)ca. there is not a single house for under 700k on southern vancouver island. the average sell time, even at these ridiculous rates is still two weeks. many properties (ordinary houses on tiny lots) are 800k to 1m.

> the "value" of houses hasnt increased at all in last 100 years. only the price.

In 1945, this guy could afford a large house, 4 kids and a stay at home mum, on a small local branch office bank manager clerk job… no college education even.

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Man, the average house price in Munich is 2.5 million euros

i remember. i bought in 2011 a foreclosed property. but see my post above. in the 2008 crash, RENT increased by 22.8% nationally! yeah i know, its counterintuative, when housing crashes, rent rises. what many people dont understand is that when housing crashes because its overinflated, then rents are ussually undervalued, because renting, like housing, has a time buffer, only its a reverse buffer. rents are artificially low when prices are artificially high, and the correction will see housing prices drop, and rent increase ... then the market re-stabilizes.

in fact its low rents that are part in cause of the crash, because its not worth it to carry a high mortage on a rental unit, making landlords want to shed debt. so they offer the rental uits for sale (something Im currently doing). when you cant get at least 4% return on capital for a rental unit, it makes sense to sell the unit.

>many mortages are locked in for years.
most are 5 year so every year 20% have to refinance
> you know whats going to go up .... rents.
rents are set by what the market can support, not by the cost of the landlord's mortgage. This is not how prices are set, at all.

your family only disintegrates if you're a low-will parasite yourself.

Shalom

look man im not saying the world is a fair place, its not. I despise most boomers too. they fucked up everything. they FUBAR'ed the economy, the moral high trust functioning societies we had. my boomer dad left over a million to his fourth wife ( a stupid roastie whore with two bastard children, by different fathers!), and he left me his old work truck and some tools ... thanks dad!
get out of Europe while you still can my friend. your politicians are batshit crazy (not that trudope is better)
>rents are set by what the market can support
yeah. and a market where real estate is artificially high is a market where rent is artificially low. read my post above yours. rent is still catching up to the fact that the fed just printed another gazillion bux last year. commodities like oil and beans almost instantly take on the new price. stocks and bonds take a few months. housing takes a year. rents take a few years.
>most are 5 year so every year 20% have to refinance
the same is true in ways of rent. some renters have been renting for 20 years! and rent increases are controlled by law. as they die, move, or retire, or buy, the landlords re-evaluate the rents (they NEVER go down). like I said above, between 2008 and 2012, while the housing price crashed, rent increased 22.8%.

Chad Dad unironically
pussy is one helluva drug

>yeah. and a market where real estate is artificially high is a market where rent is artificially low.
nope it was high because rates were low.
rates are now higher.
how do you square that equation? house prices fall.
thanks for coming to my Ted talk

>housing prices always crash to "above" the price they "used to be"
Like Bitcoin?