Last time I was here, I made a thread and we all talked about the markets broadly, but I specifically tried to get you guys out of crypto, at least in the near term. Most of you have yet to embrace the seldom accepted fact that crypto valuations have a direct correlation with the Fed balance sheet and interest rates. You can track the peak of Bitcoin with the rumor of QT starting, as was also the peak of the markets. Regardless, I spent a full day responding to comments here trying to get as many of you out as I could.
I also called the broad selloff in the markets with 100% accuracy using the US10Y as the basis of the call (proved right), which also allowed me to call the timing of the crash as well, since the correlation was one in the same with the 40 year trend. Before the crash even started, I had already worked out the bottom on the large cap names (Cameco, Agnico Eagle, etc) in commodities using Wyckoff which had shown clear confluence across all commodity sectors. I documented this, and shared it in my videos weeks in advance.
On top of this, I knew we'd get a double bottom (or trend retest, bare minimum) in said commodities and have been urging people to use what we bought at the bottom (called in advance within 2%) and swing it at the 50ema weekly in order to flush up with cash yet again for the double bottom. And here we are.
I've been successfully calling and navigating these markets scoring on 85% or so of the calls since February. A few of you mocked me about Crypto, though this was incredibly obvious from a mile away just from a technicals standpoint, let alone fundamentals. But don't worry, if you're worry about Bitcoin that much, you can likely buy back in once QE5 kicks off, but not a day sooner.
QE5 is harder to estimate than the pause on rate hikes, which should be within the next 6 weeks considering July28th brings about an official US recession once Q2 GDP numbers are announced. The pause is meaningful since that'll likely be the green light signal that commodities will jump on. QE5 is more difficult since it'll be mulled over by the politico first. I'm working on getting a feel for that.
Thanks user that means a lot
Jose Foster
You don't think there will be a debate on recession vs inflation that will still lead to rate increases but more marginally? I don't see a stance on official freeze in August-- not until September at the earliest. Maybe a possible QE5 in October to set the Dems up better for midterms?
I like to think the Fed is not partisan, but, eh.
And how do you think this all plays into Biden's stance on student loans?
Wyatt Hill
ok ok wiseguy cut to the chase will ya? ive got a massage with this thai girl in 20 minutes that really stretches out my sciatica in ways you cant imagine wen bottom wen moon thanks chap.
Justin Long
fr fr no cap on god just post a bear or bull pic rel so i can either call them a nigger or a bro
Colton Miller
The Fed has a ceiling on rate hikes due to the federal deficit, making most of this a narrative-based solution that isn't grounded in reality. In other words, the Fed is getting asset prices to collapse most on the emotion of fear rather than the fundamentals of what they actually can or would ever do. It is true they're removing liquidity from the markets and that's not to be discounted, but the reality is that if the Fed had any intentions of stopping inflation they'd produce positive real yields (900bps) rather than 50bps every 2-3 months. The Fed cannot stop inflation. The energy crisis is real and the amount of demand destruction required to squelch energy would result in a quite literal depression and people would genuinely suffer.
It's an option, but no one in power wants to press that button and face the pitchforks. Therefore, we're more likely to inevitably ramp up the printers and "print our way out" of the deficits. This passes the hot potato to the next round of people. This is almost always what governments (especially empires) do at this stage of decline in debts and fiat currency.
Terminating student loans would make inflation worse (among other things). Wouldn't surprise me to see it happen as a way to "help" people getting drowned by inflation. This "freed" up money will just go chase more goods and ramp up inflation even more.
Colton Brooks
Which newsletter has those two mining stocks? I'll buy a subscription for a 20 bagger.
Connor Lopez
I'm mostly in crypto but I got some fiat in the bank. I'd like to dab into commodities (I have watched a few of your videos - really appreciated btw) but I'm still pretty much a neophyte. Can I simply buy basket ETF (say uranium, gold, silver, etc.)? I don't feel confident to invest in indivual companies. Also for metals, pros and cons of investing into miners instead of the metal itself?
Alexander Harris
Jordan Roy Byrne. I'll give you another pick though.
Liberty Gold
Well-funded, excellent project on solid grade, near-term low-cost production, no outside warrants no problems. The chart looks like garbage because costs went up on the mine. Not a problem. Market getting it wrong, this is the kind of low cap miner you want to buy. 100k+ oz per year with low AISC and they're sitting on 70m in cash ready to go with more drilling and expansion in the future.
Henry Campbell
Uranium ETFs -- $URA and $URNM Gold ETFs -- $GDX or $GDXJ Silver ETFs -- $SIL or $SILJ
Nothing wrong with ETFs. You'll capture a lot of the movements but not the individual home runs. Nothing wrong with that either. It's good to play it safe, but the safest plays are the major names like Newmont in gold or say Cameco in Uranium.
Ayden Hall
How much further do you expect the major indexes to fall?
Feb 2020 levels should be expected at a minimum. It's also likely that any bounce in commodities gets used as a buffer to absorb rolling over with the broad markets without having to set new lows. I discuss this about a minute into this video I linked. I've been talking about this for a while too
That's: >Dow 29,500 >SP500 3,400 >Nasdaq 10,000
Ethan Thomas
About what I was thinking im at work but will check out the vid when I get off
Christian Evans
Okay but bro, just tell us what's the btc bottom
Henry Allen
You lose 20k and there's no support until 14K, then 12k, 10.5k, etc. I won't pretend to know the bottom, it will likely coincide with wherever it manages to fall by the time the Fed shifts. Again, lose 20 and it's going to hurt.
Daniel Brown
Legit analysis, really good stuff.
Hudson Morris
Thanks! Beyond oil, natgas, uranium, platinum, gold, silver, I'm starting to look at a few other things.
Have you looked into high-quality graphite yet? Have my eyes on Ceylon Graphite Corp. Sri Lanka is host to the highest grades of graphite in the world, it's very interesting that they're experiencing a severe food crisis and other socio-economic problems right now, because any outside meddlers such as the West or China will also have their eyes on Sri Lanka's resources.
Other idea I want to look more into are tantalum miners and fluorspar miners.
Carson Garcia
Thanks buddy I appreciate that.
Red pill me on this. I have zero investments in these nor do I know anything about why I'd want to be. But I'd love to learn more user
