No memes, no spite driven reasoning (“fuck the boomers!” or “fuck rentoids!”), let’s try and have a rational discussion on where we think the price of shelter is headed in the next year.
Here are a handful of baseline facts I think we can all agree on: 1. The price of homes has rarely ever gone down over the 100 year dataset we have in the US 2. The price of homes is loosely tied to the wages that wage slaves are currently making, there’s some ratio of take home pay to shelter cost that stays within a certain range over time 3. Nominal wages basically do not go down, real wages yes, but the number always increases even if it gets you less than before 4. Real estate is highly local and illiquid, price increases in one location say very little about what will happen in your area (unlike most other assets)
Okay, so what does this say about the price of shelter in the US?
Here is my case for prices stagnating or rising slower than before: White collar wagies have some say over their wages, not a ton, but more than other forms of wagies. Currently most white collar occupations are feeling squeezed by rent increases (along with general inflation), notable exceptions include QE fueled occupations like software engineers or other tech workers. I predict that we will see white collar wagies demand higher wages to accomodate higher rent prices and they’ll mostly get them, over time, as graduate wages will go up. White collar wagies will accommodate the higher rent prices and things will basically cool off.
Here is my case for prices actually declining: A massive recession wipes over the US, workers in tech get laid off and the US loses a ton of workers this command extremely high incomes. Rent prices in cities fall, houses get foreclosed, people panic sell.
I don’t see house prices falling through general rate increases, I think only a recession with rising unemployment can make that happen.
Let us stick with the facts >interest rates are rising >a ridiculous number of people have bought homes >a recession is coming
People buy less homes in a recession. People buy less homes with higher interest rates. People buy homes to live in them for years, so once they buy a home they are unlikely to buy another. That leaves the housing traders, who are banking the price will go up a lot. Given that is over the traders will also decrease, further decreasing sales.
So given all that can we predict the future? No, but the trend is certainly very negative.
Nolan Young
No bubble. Prices will go up 6% this year.
Isaiah Turner
Given inflation is higher than 6% that means actual prices are decreasing.
Jaxson Green
yes, the best we can hope for is that price increases slow down enough to be outpaced by inflation. I hope you are investing your savings so they grow by at least 10% annually
Jacob Gonzalez
Why does everyone ignore the fact that immigrants increase demand and decrease supply? They also decrease pay rates and availability of jobs along with women entering the workplace. This is a serious problem that didn’t exist during the boomers youth.
Evan Adams
Yes. Housing is the last to fall. The spike in energy cost is the pinprick, like last time.
Articles like this are kind of funny. Housing doesn't react like the stock market. It is slow, yet the article acts like they are fine. This is fine! Give it 6 more months for the system to work through the junk and when interest rates are over 3% higher than today shit is going to get real.
>I think 2008 is the only time housing has actually crashed It has happened multiple times. The great depression obviously, but also the 70's oil crisis shocks and the high inflation of the 1980's made a smaller crash.
Zachary Mitchell
boomers on average have another 10-20 years left to live though
Brandon Smith
Not like 2008. Stagnate sure. Blackrock and Vanguard are still buying up inventory
Julian Sullivan
Probably not. Look how many people want to buy homes. Prices can only go down if people stop wanting to buy homes
Christopher Walker
>Prices can only go down if people stop wanting to buy homes Soon
The fags on this board aren't sure if it's going down but nearly every respected economist says we are headed towards a major crash
Noah Price
Love this insanse biztard approach to the housing crash. As if multiple boomers will drop dead and thier houses will magically appear on the market, chalked down to 1/3 off. As opposed to leaving the property to their own flesh and blood, in their wills.
TLDR - if your parents aren't leaving you a house, you are FUCKED, anons
Daniel Ramirez
No idea, but based on my house's valuation on Zillow over the past several months, I think the top is in.
John Adams
Niggers are going to live in 'your' home for free.
Jace Garcia
run the numbers on what a 3% rise in interest rates will do to mortgage payments new buyers will be able to afford 40% less lmao
>but we raised lending standards yeah you also made the market dependent on INFINITE FREE MONEY, does that sound fucking sustainable?
Nathan Jenkins
>TLDR - if your parents aren't leaving you a house, you are FUCKED, anons As a person fucked I think soon we need a long running thread on alternative housing arrangements. Like building a cheap cabin (read: shed), living in your car (and not being in a van that costs 80k dollar youtube larper).
Parker Perry
All I can say is the realtors I know are starting to get anxious. Granted, that job seems to attract drama queen type personalities but the concern amongst them is real.
My $1800 mortgage would be $2600+ at current interest rates. Either many prospective buyers are FUCKED or the value of my house is gonna go down. I'm leaning towards the former since there's still a housing shortage and many people will buy anyway in hopes that they can refinance for a lower interest rate in the future.
Angel Baker
Most houses are up 100% in past 10 years. It’s over.
Josiah Hall
Here’s the problem with that logic - most people want to buy homes but they actually can’t afford it. Even the people buying homes now technically cannot comfortably afford them. All it takes is one dump in the housing market to trigger mass layoffs in the United States and it doesn’t really matter how depressed the cost of housing is - all of these no savings, unemployed, debtmaxxed, paycheck to paycheck living dumbfucks will not be able to “buy the dip”
Eli Wright
The only reason it feels like the top of a speculative bubble to me is because lots of “new investors” are coming in putting second mortgages on their homes because they see everyone else making money and they want a piece of the action. They’re the ones that are providing exit liquidity and who will default on those loans while smart money walks away.
Charles Ward
You’ve got it backwards. A dump in the stock market will cause the layoffs which will cause a dump in housing when people can no longer afford their mortgage and have to sell. And when big investors need to offload excess assets when the market dumps that will also cause a dump in housing prices which causes stupid new investors to get called by the bank to pay off their heloc that they bought an “investment property” with so theyll have to sell their investment property at a loss And around and around it goes
Cooper Turner
real estate prices go up during recessions with the exception of I think a couple times, 2008 obviously being one of them
