How are you going to play a Russian victory in the Ukraine? It appears that the Russians are getting closer to Odessa, which may mean the end of the hot part of the conflict. How do you think markets will react? While politicians will surely cry over it, Russian victory means: >Supply chain pressure is let off >Negotiations and sanctions lifting >End of at least one uncertainty
I am positive a Russian victory pushes up US equities, I just wonder if there will be a feint downward on the actual news. Currently I plan to buy SPY calls once Russia is in striking distance of Odessa, and if the market reacts negatively at first double down then. Thoughts?
I don't think they can afford odessa without more manpower
Ayden Diaz
If they've taken this much I think its an inevitability, without international intervention I think Russia will just funnel more men against the already battered Ukrainians. Like they tried to do in the beginning.
Brody Evans
You severely underestimate the amount of slavic boys that Russia is willing to commit into the meatgrinder. There is no outcome where this ends well for Ukraine, even if Russia has to drain its entire 18-45 male population to scorch the last piece of Ukie soil
Bentley Edwards
There won't be a Russian or Ukrainian victory, only a jewish victory.
Russia will literally zerg rush unarmed men at ukranian machine guns if they have to. There is literally a limitless supply of them. You can only hold back a certain amount before the bodies start piling up and suffocating you under their weight. They're in too deep now. Anything less than victory will be the downfall of the kremlin, and they will never allow that to happen.
Carson Perry
How accurate is this map in terms of "big picture" troop deployment? It looks like the entirety of the Southern theater is being defended by a little more than 2 corps against the Russian's having 2 whole armies + a corp in the region. And Odessa only has a single division securing it in case the lines collapse?
Won't the Ruskie population get sick of it? When do they just say I'm not gonna do it is all?
Easton Jenkins
i think the inevitable russian victory will not be accepted by the west sanctions will not be immediately lifted, plus they will need some scapegoat for the ever increasing inflation
so play around >the possibility of oil/gas continuing to pump >stagflation/hyperinflation >mining stocks
Colton Sullivan
If you can get a hold of Russian assets or investments then this is the time to buy now. Russia will win the war before Christmas leading to a complete collapse of Ukraine. The West will bitch and moan for a bit but ultimately come back for Russian gas. Buying Russian equities at -50% to -70% is a once in a generation wealth building experience.
Julian Richardson
>sanctions will not be immediately lifted They had sanctions ever since the Crimea thing and that was in like 2014.
Dylan Nelson
yeah but they were light, some of them utterly worthless and only there for show
things like outright trade embargoes or kicking countries from international payment systems are way more impactful
James Perry
This, don't expect RSX to be trading any time soon.
Justin Garcia
Ukraine has an endless supply of Western equipment coming in. The longer this goes on the worse for Russia.
Thomas Lopez
They've used less than a third of their active military men. They won't need to conscript in this war.
John Thomas
I >think the Russians will overall win this war (favorable peace treaty + territorial concessions) but it seems unlikely that they could either defeat the Ukrainian army or otherwise convince them it's hopeless before the end of the year. The blundering of their initial zerg rush allowed the Ukrainians to get their defenses in order and provided a large boost to morale because they're all thinking that the Russians are too incompetent to organize a successful assault (maybe partially true, what do I know).
Nolan Gonzalez
saving up money for russian mail order brides. expecting a discount with all the male deaths and all .
Ethan Ward
This:
Alexander Rivera
Russia ain't got so many slavic boys to commit to the meatgrinder, that narrative's been dead for a hot minute.
