Kelly criterion. The guy putting half his portfolio into short term puts on any stock with no edge or even 20% edge will go broke 100% of the time. Bet sizing past a reasonable point leads to assured total loss
Universe is balanced to punish gamblers. Even with 60% chance to wine very trade you go broke at high bet size.
Over time, all the people who don't follow this and take too much risk go to zero. Steady compounding or even rapid but still fairly sized compounding bets are ideal over even high edge yolo
Logan Clark
Half my spare cash went into spy $405c for november What do i put the other half in? Just more $405c? Maybe $410c? Price target $420 at least
It's crazy to be how hard this bounced up over the last 2 days. I can't find a single 2-3 bounce where this happened before in the last 10 years except for when the Fed came and saved the market in March of 2020.
the longer it takes the slower our recover will be. the faster it is the better
Brayden Barnes
Warren Buffet bought Activision stock, MS is supposed to buy it at 95 dollars per share. It is currently $78 dollars => 22% gain. Will go through sometime between now and June 2023 [I know this is old news but I wanted to share]
Carson Scott
siga chads lfg
David Garcia
Floored (2008) is required viewing.
Cameron Reed
>he still hasnt bought oil
Austin Reed
I have been bobo posting for the last week to encourage other bears to keep pressing. The reality is that I'm 100% long and want to crush my enemies.
Yes. I sold my calls right before I posted that. I didn't expect it to go up this much. I thought it would take at least a few days to 2 weeks to recover this much.
Eli Fisher
Fuck you I just bought puts
Jayden Wood
I’m thinking we really crash when one of three things happen here.
1) Inflation increases again beyond previous high
2) Next quarterly GDP shows another decline
3) Housing prices begin collapsing through additional rate hikes (more of a slow motion crash I presume here)
Thoughts?
Noah Scott
The Fed DID save the market recently. Did you miss where they said they'd pause hikes in September or when there was clear evidence that inflation had peaked (core PCI inflation today tells us that it has). Tightening is not going to happen and there will be at worst 2 more 50bp hikes. MELTUP.
>waited all morning to buy in because it looked bullish >bought the top i dont understand, how do i manage to do it everytime? is there some kind of market psychology they know where they can tell exactly when people like me will buy in, so they can dump?
Nathan Cook
i saw the used car price index cratered.. if there is a lot of rapid demand destruction, the fed could ease up on the hikes.. I don't think that will happen but a lot of people do think that
>they said they'd pause hikes in September they didn't, the market is just making up headcannon
Benjamin Foster
Insert Coin (2020)
Colton Jackson
>Did you miss where they said they'd pause hikes in September or when there was clear evidence that inflation had peaked They didn't say this, and a tip for readers: When you see posts like this, you can assume they're also being made elsewhere, e.g. reddit, e.g. tik tok, e.g. all the other normie places where shills go to defraud the public.
Jaxson Ramirez
>Did you miss where they said they'd pause hikes in September Was this the same day they said they're planning to extend rape hikes into 2023? Bullish
Logan Ramirez
field of dreams, goodfellas. rip Ray Liotta
Kevin Green
Did the whole market jus trouble top? I’m
Connor Sanchez
STALL STALL STALL
Noah Powell
You have to hold for longer than five minutes. Try five years.
Owen Baker
We literally had a stronger bounce in March of this year, the hell chart are yoy looking at?
those are all pretty good catalysts. the jew whose podcast i listen to keeps saying capitulation from retail panic is what usually causes a crash rather than an orderly selloff and that hasnt happened yet. and as we know, retail (at least younger retail) has le diamond hands we'll see if the boomers with their life savings in aapl get worried and sell when any of those 3 things happen
Grayson Jenkins
ok anyone else thinking the SPY pump will continue or did i fuck myself? will it end brightly green?
Sebastian Allen
always buy 3:50pm EST, check resistance lvls
Wyatt Rogers
FUCK FUCK FUCK I MISSED THE OPPORTUNITY TO SHORT THE MARKET AT SPY 412!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
>demonstrably false narratives continue to pervade everything they say Yeah we're all so broke from TSLA
Jackson Thompson
What do you day trade, options?
Kayden Wright
You're a follower, not a leader. You don't take risk. You're the last to join a fad after it's already peaked and the popular kids have moved on. You're that member of the herd who only crosses the river after the alpha has shown that it's safe.
Jack Scott
other candidates: >big companies default on variable debt post rate hikes >plenty of countries other than sri lanka start defaulting, leading to panic >russia situation escalates once more >the "strong job market" that the fed keeps postulating as such collapses (e.g. in anticipation of a recession by companies) and unemployment goes up
David Wood
>bro, im trying to day trade that will get old quick
Ethan Barnes
PUMP DAMMIT PUMP KEEP GOING SPY IS THAT ALL YOU FUCKIGN GOT YOU PIECE OF SHIT
Jace Anderson
Crypto not participating is great
Leo Davis
>the fed could ease up on the hikes.. I don't think that will happen but a lot of people do think that i think them even implying they will is enough for a short term rally. and i think even if they actually do, that does NOT mean we'll be out of the bear market
Charles Foster
Good riddance to Shito
Nolan Collins
Cope overload. I seriously hope you don't believe any of what you're saying and are only spreading FUD (because let's face it spreading fud is funny).
Alexander Nelson
You day trade SPY?
Jace Fisher
Why can’t we just get rug pulled and move on? I hate this cock and ball torture the fed insists on
They will ease up as soon as humanly possible because the market can't take even 2% rates any more. We're at 0.75% now and the market has crashed about as fast as it ever has in history.
Nicholas Powell
Satanic trips, does this mean the market is getting rugged today?
Blake Moore
during this market ive been trading 3x etfs because the market has been doing big moves most days like 2-3%. im trying to take profit fast and early and not get caught in some unexpected move because it swings all the time.
