statistically, the vast majority of you have lost a large amount of money this year. i have lost no money. why? because i do not gamble or speculate.
i invest in productive assets that produce real money *now*, trading close to or below their liquidation value, with enormous upside potential, but without the necessity for that potential to play out, and downside protection by the virtue of the strength of the company's balance sheet, and the ratio between the cash flows of the business *now* and its price, offset with debt and cash.
most of you cannot into basic mathematics. this is why you will stay poor. if you listen to these retards who tell you to yolo into anything, you will stay poor. value investing is the only reliable, empirically-driven model that exists for making money in capital markets.
dropping this truth bomb bc im very tired of seeing u retards lose money (and ur livelihoods) bc u got scammed by other retards into putting money in stuff you can't understand. i just want the best for u ok
Yes I lost a lot of money this year but I've done a 100x in the last 6 years
Zachary Jones
what mathematics should I look into
Dominic Garcia
>"no, i am a crypto trading genius. it wasnt the biggest bull market in history".
Asher Walker
math doesnt care fat fuck. 100x is 100x. have fun staying poor fatty
Ayden Jackson
well first of all you should take a look at the market cap of every coin currently in existence. then you should take what people say is their expected rate of growth for a coin in the market over a certain duration. now compound that rate over that time and then look at the final market capitalisation.
now compare that market cap to the market cap of other assets.
a few things you'll notice: - all the popular cryptocurrencies are currently wildly overvalued. ethereum is currently priced at around 1/3 of the value of amazon. that is basically to say that people are valuing ethereum in the same ballpark as amazon. In the same vein, people are valuing bitcoin in the same ballpark range as gold, which is tax advantaged over bitcoin and clearly better in every way for 'store of value' use-case in my opinion.
- you cannot possibly get a 100x from the vast majority of cryptocurrencies purely on a mathematical level. people like are delusional and can't do basic calculations.
what they're really doing is taking past performance and linearly extrapolating it into the future.
crypto ppl are suffering deeply from survivorship bias.
Adrian Hall
i have had multiple 100 baggers. and i did it safely without yolo'ing my money into anything. have fun replicating "just yolo it into btc bro" lol
Jaxon Lee
I bought SWBI because it had a PE below 3 and no debt and a bunch of comfy government sales revenue and I'm down 20%
So what you're saying is you look at some numbers and assume things long after you're looked at the numbers will be fine and dandy and nothing will go wrong and then you give them your money and it's a sure thing
Logan Green
what did you buy then in the past? proof or gtfo
Levi Lee
swbi is a decent one. id stick with it. thesis hasn't played out yet. 20% is very little downside in the grand scope of things especially this year.
the market is pricing in SWBI for a drop down to its original price already. if it retains any earnings it will rocket upwards.
worst case you can wait until the next point in the gun sales cycle. it regularly rockets up like it has. and if you take the earnings at troughs and peak it looks quantitatively cheap.
keep it up. real business yield is more important than what markets think. only the unsure and uneducated focus on stock price.
Jace Jones
you don't need to assume anything. quant factor investing works. just put your money into a small cap value fund and you will get 16% a year on average, an alpha of 6% over the s&p.
also net-net investing will net you 20-30% a year.
if you want higher returns you need to find great compounders and quant won't work. also net-nets only work up to a net worth of 10mil
the mistake you're making here is assuming you need to hold a company long term with quant which is not how it works. theses dont take that long to play out.
but if you were to choose just from numbers, you should choose companies that are currently distressed (according to markets, maybe they aren't actually distressed in reality), not ones that are doing well and are hyped up by markets. you have better chances.
or you can go for long-term compounders but you still should do a calculation of what the business is actually worth that is reasonable.
"X to the moon!!" is not a real investment model. it is gambling
Zachary Myers
Fuck soï crypto speculating "investments" I turned 300 euros into 500 buying wheat Feel free to envy me
Jose Morris
it's a quant strategy that weights company by earnings yield, and ROIC (return on invested capital). You just select the top 30 out of that weighted list and historically it outperforms markets.
Acquirers multiple is where you just leave out the ROIC part. The reason it does better is because sectors and industries that are generating high returns on capital attract competition which actually lowers the ROIC. The companies with high ROIC have higher expectations. So it depresses earnings over time. Whereas companies with poor ROIC actually get better over time because people are leaving the industry, and these companies have great balance sheets bc that's what earnings yield accounts for, and bing bang boom you have an ez winning strategy.
one thing, this strategy is cyclical. so in bubbles it tends not to do quite as well. but in times like now where bubbles pop and value-growth spreads shrink it does way better than this sort of degen strategy (which you can only really identify the good investments of in hindsight)
if u idiots take anything from this thread. just dont shit out your money into stuff ppl tell you to buy. markets are not supposed to be gambling. ive seen people go into luna after losing their life savings on it even though its CLEARLY a ponzi. they do not know any other way of doing things.
Landon Roberts
okay thanks i will look into it :)
Levi Carter
>real money is that "real money" in the room with us right now?
Andrew Wright
>tfw user cant read an income statement
Nathaniel Lopez
They should just buy link. Its undervalued compared to other crypto and its easy to understand why it is valuable
John Ross
>income is that "income" in the room with us right now? captcha:8DYKS
Jason Bennett
>hey i cant quantitatively value it but its undervalued trust me
Colton Sullivan
comparing crypto mcap to equities is midwit-tier. compare it to fiat instead
Easton Hall
no. because you idiots treat crypto like a security, i am evaluating it as a security. i am not following you into this semantic smoke-and-mirrors rabbit hole.
