youtu.be
“People can use logic and understand if you’re trying to buy low and sell high. You want to reverse what most people do. Most people will be selling near bottoms and buying near tops. You want to reverse that which is hard to do because you have to go against your gut.”
financhill.com
Do you believe in his "melt up" market theory?
The few who’ll read this post: I hope you understand what comes next and it isn’t what most people think.
Crash in the 2nd half of the year?
>kiss me you fool.
It makes qualitative sense, but the hard numbers he gives as price targets are bs. All things considered, I'm buying with the expectation that number shall go up soon in the next 3-6 months.
Wouldn’t what he’s saying just ensure inflation goes to like 20% by 2023
based
He believes that the melt up will be followed immediately by the largest economic crash since 1929, which would be extremely deflationary.
What if the melt-up already happened and it was 2020-2021?
the s&p 500 is going above 9k
doesn't change the fact that sentiment is signaling that we are already in or near a bottom.
What's the fundamental justification? Has the Fed re-started QE yet? Just stating "hurr everyone is bearish" doesn't mean anything, if everyone is bearish why is everyone trying to catch a falling knife in ARKK as shown by the massive inflows, for example?
Yeah I have heard the market peaked a year before the 2008 crash back then. Although every crash is different.
If you wait until the fed restarts QE you miss most of the gains. The justification is the economy going to shit too fast, the market then will front run a fed pivot, even if that pivot never materializes.
>hurr everyone is bearish
is the best leading indicator
>If you wait until the fed restarts QE you miss most of the gains.
To what extent was this true in 2018 and 2020?
I have no clue
People are FOMOing into cash during high inflation lmao, when just a year ago they were calling it worthless.
Macro is different, fed is under too much pressure to keep the tightening mask on. The market will realize the fed is stuck before the fed realizes it. Just a guess. Maybe "most" was hyperbolic.
Hes saying buy red. If you wait till the fed starts its bs again you will be to slow
Where? Show me the FOMO into cash
rather true. in 2018/19 prices bottomed well before they reduced rates again, and in 2020 the pump was already underway when they began handing out money
look at asset prices except for commodities. there is a rush to sell assets (particularly speculative risky ones) for USD