On fertilizer, food, and its derivatives

I'm seeing anons on opposite ends of the spectrum concerning food shortages and fertilizer mooning, etc. It's something like

>it's a nothingburger
>food prices will increase but besides that nothing
>people in net importer countries should stock up
>people in net importer countries should be looking to move
>people in net importer countries will all die
>"A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barely for a denarius "
>everyone outside a net exporter will die, and even those should be seriously concerned
>it's over, and it's only just begun
>you'll be eating nothingburgers
>mad max

Well, /biz?

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Fertilizer plants were exploded last year.
Russia will export fertilizer to friendly countries in their own currency, gold or crypto.

Countries will stop exporting food stuffs when things get bad.
India will stop exporting, so will all of Asia.
The entire structure of supply side economics is about to crash and burn.

Price controls, and high inflation, disuse of the USD and Euro.
>madmax, maybe.
This is a complete suicide of Europe and the US, as they cut Russia off the Swift exchange.

Every other country like China can only look on as the all go down with the ship.
China is going to maintain its currency peg untill the Chinese starve and revolt.
Chinese will be forced to break the USD peg as will all other countries.
Euro first will break the USD, peg then India then China.
Japan will hold far longer then they should.

mad max assured in certain countries with very high populations and large dependency on food imports
you do not want to living in say egypt, indonesia, kenia or nigeria
impact in the west will be managed with stimmies and ration booklets to a degree but will suck for people living close to the edge
how far it escalates from there is hard to say, two problems come to mind: a new migrant wave that dwarfs all others and third world countries no longer producing mineral inputs because they are starving

>Russia will export
their ports are de facto blockaded by the west, their industrial output in the far east is minimal and rail across the caucasus or through kazachstan is minimal at best so user please explain how they will export

North America, EU and Asia will be fine with some added inflation. Middle East and Africa will hurt. A lot. Latin American farmers will have the best year in decades. I don't have a model for Pakistan/India/Bangladesh.

Grocery prices are already excessive. In an environment of extreme division, how much more stress can the US endure?

When ME/Africa are hurt EU is flooded with migrants bro

In the US, food prices will soon 10x

There will be a food shortage, don't lie to yourself. My fertilizer stocks has been mooning the past few months. It's only going to continue to go up.

It's a simply demand and supply.

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i think it'll be a nothingburger only because at the last minute agreements will be made
if the economy goes into a spiral that means the people that started the war in the first place have entered heightened risk
this is not how control has been held for centuries

holy shit he must have been in a rush that morning

What stocks, user? I want to buy in.

NTR is breaking way above it's all time high and
MOS

Those are the two big ones in the US.

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$UAN

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>Argentina superpower
Oh oh, looks like we've got ourselves a little Zeihan bot

nobody cares today of a homeless man dying on the street. why would they start in the future? theres an objective number of people alive and an objective number of food. those who cant will be the first to starve and then die. if that isnt reality to you you can look up gore and know yesterday someones head had been lopped off by another human. theres nothing pretty to be said about these things

USA is pretty insulated. Gonna effect poor countries a lot

>>it's a nothingburger
>>food prices will increase but besides that nothing
One of the two nothing more the rest is just Any Forumstard schizo larping as always.

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normies are debtmaxxed up to their eyeballs. inflation over the past 1-2 years has fucked them good. the gas price increases over the past few months have fucked them even harder. food inflation will be the straw that broke the nigger cattle's back.

it's honestly so sick that we rely on fertilizers for any food growth to occur
we turned the land into a crack whore that constantly needs its fix

The Haber-Bosch process literally increased the hardcap for population from about 1bn to something like 10bn.
If cheap reliable electricity becomes a thing, such as a mythical fusion reactor, that cap could increase to at least 30bn since Haber Bosch is strictly energy limited, and traditional outdoor farming won't compete with indoor factory farmed food.

the thing is that one day something will happen, why not now

>the thing is that one day something will happen, why not now
Why do you think something will happen that affects us globally? It already happend and it is called the cough aka corona for over 2 years by now. Hyperinflation is a way bigger risk but also not very likely. I get it Any Forumstards are angry normalniggers that want just something to happen so they can lash out their anger but you have to look realistically at things.