Putting aside all of the sanctions and cancel Russia from everything rhetoric consider and discuss the potential...

Putting aside all of the sanctions and cancel Russia from everything rhetoric consider and discuss the potential scenario and implications on business & finance:

1. In the coming weeks when Ukraine likely surrenders on Russia's terms (I say this because no one wants to go to war with Russia so it's more or less a certainty once Kyiv is surrounded), this will include amongst other things a pro Russian regime.

2. Russia will then control around 30% of the world's wheat exports perhaps more given recent weather events affecting other producers.

3. Russia will then increase its share of gas exports which already sits at about 26% internationally and accounts for about 40% of Europe's needs.

4. Russia, China and India are developing and have developed partnerships to conduct trade with one another via their own version of Swift.

5. The European commission has been promoting the euro as the reserve currency for a number of years now in place of the USD (petro dollar).

6. The latest Bank of Russia reports that only 22% of its international reserves are US Dollars, while gold accounts for 23%. As of January 28th 2022, Russia holds about $634 billion in international reserves, the world’s 4th largest forex reserves.
Russia’s largest reserve currency holding is the Euro which accounts for a third of all reserves. Gold is the second largest, and the US Dollar is the third largest. Chinese Yuan comprises about 12%.

7. Inflation is rampant world wide and the US can either print more money or raise interest rates both of which would be catastrophic.

8. The US cannot afford another war especially not with Russia nor can any European countries.

9. When the dust settles and Russia starts trading with europe again what currency do you suppose Russia will demand that its gas and wheat be paid for other than USD - Does a mixture of Rubels, RMB, Gold & Euros seem plausible?

10. Suppose China does the same.

11. This war is a counter attack on the petro dollar.

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Don't you mean "putin" aside the sanctions user? Eh? Ehhh?

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That's exactly what I meant.

The financial war we are witnessing is predicated on the use of centralized systems, the only defense is each country/alliance having their own system or having a decentralized system.
I think this entire conflict looks very promising for crypto, adoption through needs.

Indeed. What I didn't include in the above was the effect cryptocurrency has had and will continue to have on the petro dollar (much the same as the rising euro, Yuan etc).

It's hard to quantify crypto's impact but as we have seen countries are moving towards accepting it as payment and there's nearly a trillion dollars in btc alone which I imagine also has a measurable impact on the petro dollar - not to mention crypto as a whole which sits at nearly $2 trillion dollars.

That being said the US isn't stupid and they would surely be aware of these issues.. hence the headlines about regulating crypto etc.

A further point to consider then is that if the US dollar does slip further or even collapses.. What effect will this have on stable coins like Tether which are pegged to USD.

One would imagine people are going to head for the door asap and there will be a liquidity crisis however many might seek refuge in bitcoin/eth causing the price of bitcoin to moon to levels we didn't even think possible.. This doesn't seem unreasonable.

fiat currency might take demand away from crypto if they start becoming competitive with interest rates and deflation what i think will happen to ruble. crypto make their money from fees and stablecoins is the bulk of volume anyway. wouldnt want to hold bitcoin if that narrative is true and the same authority that had power to arbitraily print money now has the power to arbitrarily deflate the supply if we head into a currency competition

If you support Russia don't talk to me. And ya that's the straw that will break the camels back whether it's friendship, marriage, family relationships.

>In the coming weeks when Ukraine likely surrenders
This shit won't be over in months, let alone weeks.

Literally same exact like with corona, again the "just two more weeks" headlines

Provide some talking points rather than resorting to whether I or anyone else supports Russia or not because this goes much deeper than just surface level good v bad world views.

Unlike Corona though the world already has a crippling hangover to deal with via inflation and general fatigue for disasters.

The longer the war in Ukraine goes on for the longer prices rise in Europe and more and more people switch from "help ukraine" to "why am I paying so much for food and gas".

People had a "crippling hangover" and "general fatigue" already at few months into corona, you just tell them two more weeks and literally years go by.

This fucked state will not be resolved for long, there won't be any clear end of conflict in mere weeks

If that's the case it just feeds into the inflation problem.. big time.

The question is then what will the US' response be to further rising inflation and supply chain issues.. Printing more money and/or raising interest rates is a very delicate exercise which could make things much worse.

Good analysis. America is in a very bad place right now, interesting times ahead.

Thanks for one of the only interesting threads right now OP.

The real war is the economic war. Everyone is distracted by the physical war as that's the shiny object and it's far sexier than researching Bretton Woods, the Petro Dollar, etc.

Every General is always fighting the last war. This one war won't be fought or won with bombs, troops, or nukes even, it's as you laid out, a currency war first and foremost.

Indeed and the next chapter appears to be centred around the US pushing crypto regulation. But that seems like a smoke show.. Because the US has a huge interest being in crypto whilst stable coins are pegged to USD it's literally the petro dollar 2.0 (crypto dollar).

There is some seriously shit going on behind the scenes that we are all blissfully unaware of.

And so the squeeze begins with nations urgently convening to discuss how to offset energy prices increases in the face of the Russian war.

For all of the US' endeavours over oil and gas it now faces its biggest challenge yet.. How to deal with the massive hole created by shutting out Russia (Ukraine indirectly).

It is simple math, where the fuck is 23% of the world and 40% of Europe's gas supply going to come from if not from Russia and at what cost and to who?

This is straight up chess being played on the world stage.

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Does this mean its time to debt max usd and buy a house if we havent already?

ahhh, and idk necessarily currency. But in general digital warfare (and currency included). Its gonna be exciting. Especially since half of us are coders, math, economics, physics stem dudes here.

I think that ship sailed during 2020/2021 and what we're looking at now is inflation coupled with a slowing or even declining housing market.