The EU as an entity is OVER

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A primer on business cycles
There are so many indications of the EU is heading into depression and it doesn't look like anything can be done about it
So lets have a thread on the implications

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I see a lot of threads on europoors freezing this winter
Some will
But the economic outlook for the EU is worse than just getting cold, the EU is rapidly heading into a depression
They are already in recession.
This winter is going to be a shitstorm
People are going to realise what this is going to mean for them in the long term and even the normies are going to wake up from the dream, look around and see the devestation

Price fixing is a huge indicator of depression and generally doesn't help as it inevitably leads to higher unemployment

This is already starting, Germany is going to start issuing mandates for energy usage
The EU is talking about price capping energy imports
Here in the UK they are talking about rent price freezes(I think Scotlands doing it already)

While none of these are good ideas what it shows you is one thing
Politicians are getting desperate

So going forward, what happens
We can already see the impacts
And anons, what we are seeing here is NOTHING
kek
I swear if the masses knew whats coming around the corner they would be marching on Brussels now
Ukraine and Russia export 25% of grains globally
If Russia stops exporting you are looking at bread and other staples doubling in price, maybe even tripling
Thats just one of the things going on that will like to a snap depression during winter

Consumer confidence is very low
People are not spending
Businesses are over extending and we will start to see more and more layoffs as they try to recoup losses
Thats leading to more and more Government spending (which means more borrowing) so you then get into the downward spiral

>The EU as an entity is OVER
you are not good at paying attention to crisis and how they played out right? each crisis led to more integration, measurably. you can like that or hate that, idc, but thats a fact

So according to you the french revolition was when monarchy won?

external crisis is not the same as internal crisis
and I dont believe you understand the scope of whats coming here
This winter is going to lead to mass unemployment across all sectors
Tourism is going to be fucked due to people saving their money for their energy bills
Airway companies are already struggling with higher fuel costs
More than a couple are going to fold without government bail outs and money is running out

the uk is heading into a depression precisely because it left the union, cope harder brexitard

The spiral
Inflation is rising and will keep rising
Households stop spending
Consumer confidence plummits
Bailouts are needed
Unemployment rises, taxable income decreases
vat income decreases due to people not spending
Governmenst keep borrowing but investors start to shy away as confidence decreases
Bonds lose value, currency shits the bed

lol
everyone is heading into a depression
we will get out it a lot quicker because we can manipulate our spending/borrowing in a more agile manner
The Euro is going to take all you with it
Have you any idea how long it takes for a decision to get made in the EU
Within 2 years countries will be abandoning the Euro as a way to try and kickstart their economy

Here is where its going to get funny
The EU commision borrows from the international market
They then lend to the country that needs it
Essentially they are brokers
All those gibs countries are going to start getting refused loans because they cant pay back
and they cant go outside
they become toxic debt
This will lead to huge political unrest and protests, riots the whole fucking nine yards
These countries will have to either pay huge taxes or tell the EU to fuck off, the EU will try and hold them to debt.
The EU will eat itself

debt crisis was internally. even when many laws were bent, it ended in more european integration - with many unthinkable outcomes before the event. migration crisis the same. frontex was a fucking theoretically nobody and are now patroling libyan seas and the mediterainian. that doesnt price is the effectivness of these meassures but the efforts of intergration in europe. they are undeniable, thats why your thread is so fucking off beat of reality it makes one think of your intellectual capacity.
you can like it or not and i dont give a damn about it but every crisis in the last decades resulted in higher european integration as result. if you are challenging this fact you are completely delusional and not paying attention to reality imo.

every god damn euro critic party softend their stance significantly in this timespan also. its a good indication for what i say is true.

If Turkey cant secure the grain imports it needs they might be the first to go
Turkey likes a coup
Thats the problem with having such a big military
Erdogan has tried to get rid off those he fears but there will always be one
Their currency is already in the shitter and a spike in grain prices will set the chain in motion

weimar republic for all of europe and then......

WHITE CHIMPOUT INCOMING

top kek

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>2
>more
>weeks

its a fair point
but it only works if the EU is your friend
see The implosion will occur when the EU stops borrowing for toxic debtors

your nonsense offers no input and you didnt dispplay any coherent equivalent of what i said. there was no euro institutions when french revolution happend. this is a completly different topic, make a thread of it and i prob wont click...or phrase it differently since it makes zero sense what you are doing here of what i said and what you offered me back of what i supposedly said in your mind

inflation will not go up if people do not spend their money. Ever heard of velocity of money?

>The implosion will occur when the EU stops borrowing for toxic debtors
this will not happen in foreseeable future since euro institutions is not some market force thing or something in the ballpark of some market related mathematical 'problem' but a political will. plain and simple. there are very different forces at work.

>but it only works if the EU is your friend
i dont understand this, honestly of how and why this is connected to what your primary point or my answer is. elaborate

Tourism is fucked
So all those countries that imported migrant workers in order to allow Tourism to keep their prices so low and out of step with todays market will go in a flash
That means all those non-contract workers suddenly go on benefits
Thats going to put huge pressure on the governments involved
Less taxable income, more expense

I don't think they will flock to national socialism user.

>every crisis in the last decades resulted in higher european integration
True, because it's the politicians answer to everything. None of those crises were accompanied by an EU-wide depression though. Depressions are always centrifugal and see countries turn inwards and trade decline
The EU will not survive this decade (nor for that matter will the UK)

they will flock to something is my guess

hopefully removing the politicians that keep causing these problems

>The EU will not survive this decade
i'd wager big bets against this anyday. powerfull euro countries (france/germoney) know they are at best south koreas in the next 50y on their own or 'only' with bi/trilateral contracts.
that i'd wager big bets doesnt mean that it is/will be a success story or i am a fan of it, but every fucking body in europe knows that the outcome without would be more dire in the coming decades. thats why the political will is kept alive. and will be.

The EU borrows on a countries behalf, doesn't charge interest on the original rate.
This only works if the individual country can pay it back
This is no different than applying for a loan
Greece is a good example
They are already in trouble
If you take tourism out of their economy they are fucked and will have to keep borrowing
There will come a point where the EU will have to stop lending

This is just me spouting out because I am bored but all the indications are that the EU is heading into territory its never been in
All past examples are irrelevant if what I think is going to happen happens

They will flock to right-wing conservatism probably
Left-wing governments are shite at making money, people will start looking at who is getting hand outs, asking why and the politicians that start standing up to the gibs getters will get ahead