> The Witch leaves. > For Onshoring to work TSMC needs to move staff and equipment. > This is the deal she is working and it'll involve a defense pact. > China wants the Island to break out of the 1st island chain. > Without breaking out they can't secure their trade routes.
> China blockades the island, nothing in or out. Period. > Taiwan can sit and do nothing for months, they've been preparing for war. > If China bombs the island and invades, no chip fabs. > US Amasses several Aircraft carriers and marine expidetionary forces in Guam. > Japan Says nothing, Amasses fleet near Okinawa.
> A Bunch of Etheopians invade Djbouti, Blockade the Bab Al-Mandab Straight > Just start popping off oil tankers for funsies. > US Parks an Aircraft Carrier or two in the Arabian Sea. > Tells China to stop blockade or no more oil, permanently. > Furthermore, Japan quietly seizes a few Chinese-owned cargo freighters For "Weapons inspection" > AKA, Japan would love to just seize your shit China. > Middle east freaks the fuck out, curses and swears in Arabic but does nothing.
> Xi has two options. > If he invades, they lose half their population in a year and closer to 80% within 3. > Due to not being able to have gas or oil imports. > Then ontop of that he gets fucked by not having chips for his military. > As China needs imports for that and Japan is going to blockade them. > US Reminds China the NORKS would LOVE to invade and they have nukes too!
The deciding factor is how trigger-happy Chinese Generals are.
As a note, Taiwan, Japan, the SORKS, Phillipines, Indonesians, Vietnamese, etc all have "turnscrew" nuclear programs. Meaning they turn the screw on the ICBM and they can launch.
All of this is going to bring it to Xi's attention that a lot of bullshit is going on, and he's going to have to get creative in dealing with it. It will likely be the end of his Cult of Personality and of the CCP since killing half the population in a de-industrialization wave is not something I'd say would be a happy ending in any way, shape or form.
If a single shot is fired at Taiwan, it will go down in history as one of the dumbest strategic blunders EVER.
Wtf... I tried to do this with a baby deer and he just lied motionless playing dead I got closer to pet him and he just cringed with one eye open to see if I left .
>> If China bombs the island and invades, no chip fabs. China can also *avoide bombing and destroying chip fabs or only allowing slight damage* even if they do get destroyed, the remains can be reverse-engineerd, not to mention that China's doubling down on their own chip manufacturing >Taiwan can sit and do nothing for months, they've been preparing for war. They have a food self sufficiency rate of 35% >> Tells China to stop blockade or no more oil, permanently. China would just start importing alot more from Russia and Africa >Also Assuming that US can do that, not to mention that they're still in range of Chinese ballistic missiles, also who said that US would help Taiwan to that extent?
>If he invades, they lose half their population in a year and closer to 80% within 3.
Just no, EU relied on Russia for like 50% of their oil, yet they still seem fine, China produces 41 on their own and only 44% of imports are from the middle East
William Perry
>Here is how Taiwan will play out. Not to mention that this is just another dumbass prediction made by a pol-tard that will either Not happen Be completely incory In the best case scenario a quarter of the predictions will be right
Camden Green
>China can also *avoide bombing and destroying chip fabs or only allowing slight damage COPE
>They have a food self sufficiency rate of COPE
>China would just start importing alot more from Russia and Africa COPE
>China produces 41 on their own All of that is offshore, western-supported, new, controversial (SE Asia and India are pissed about it) and shortages tend to snowball badly. What happens when the west withdraws all tech support and decides to escalate for funsies because the current Oil embargo isn't working?
Not Glownnigger, just studed and tired of seeing psyop bullshit on this board. 90% of the psyop BS on this board is cope.
Bob Ross was too good for this world. His mentor was a Nazi SS officer btw. He was /ourpainter/. I would bet that he was a closeted artist version of Breker
Ugh, two things one OP posits a blockade of all Middle East AND African sources of oil. Two refineries are tooled for a specific type of oil. Chinas imports from the Middle East and Africa are primarily light sweet crudes; whereas, Russia primarily produces a medium sour crude. If you tried to process Russian oil in refineries currently working with light Middle East/African imports those refineries would be completely fucked ina month. China would need to retool its fleet of refiners to shift from overseas imports to all Russian imports. Now that CAN be done but it would take years, and most certainly cannot be done when energy supply lines are cut. Give China another 5-10 years to build ties to Russia and reorient their economy along with continue building their military, and THEN China can ignore any potential US blockade. Arguably this is why the us is being aggressive now trying to bait the CCP into making a fatal mistake.
Connor Russell
>China blockades the island, nothing in or out. Period any minute now
Mason Edwards
1 shekel deposited
Josiah Mitchell
This would lead to nukes flying. Even if it falls naturally during the blockade nukes would still fly. Luckily since the main us government and population centers are actively trying to exterminate us this is a win win for us. So any way we can meme a mop there ASAP?
Bentley Taylor
>Taiwan can sit and do nothing for months No they cant. They dont even have enough water.
Jordan Miller
>> Due to not being able to have gas or oil imports. Why not just get gas / oil from Russia?
