Can someone, in layman’s terms, describe why oil prices are so through the roof? I did my own research...

Because Biden printed trillions of dollars to make sure the economy doesnt collapse AGAIN.
Just add another page. No one is coming for the debt. We are just impoverishing ourselves at the benefit of (((capitalist)))

Stfu you dumb slavic nigger. Pitons little temper tantrum hasn’t done shit to gas. It’s bidens policy that is really killing our market.

cherrycreekmortgage.com/lous-credit-news

During the last forty-four years, my days have begun and ended with the mortgage market. Four painful moments stand out. Today makes five. (There have been many more good days, but even the Fairy Godmother has her limits.)
Mortgages are covered poorly in financial press, as stocks and such are much more entertaining. Today’s events still unfolding will take days for good coverage. Freddie’s weekly survey will not discover today until next Thursday. But the MBS market is real-time, not like old, sleepy S&L days.
The CPI news this morning was so awful that it changed the bond market’s view of Fed trajectory, and the weakest sector broke. In bond jargon, MBS went “no-bid.” No buyers for MBS. Then a few posted prices beyond borrower demand, not wanting to buy except at penalty prices. Overnight the retail consequence has been a leap from roughly 5.50% to 6.00% for low-fee 30-fixed loans.
The physics of collisions... the second one does the harm. When your car hits a telephone pole, no problem. Then, after a slight lag, trouble comes when you hit the inside of your car. Same thing in football: helmet on helmet is all-okay... until your brain hits the inside of your skull.
The same physics govern housing collisions with mortgages. At the new year mortgages were still three-ish. In February, four. At the end of March, five. May, five-and-a-half. Historically, a two-percentage-point rise from cyclical trough has iced housing, the freeze underway a month ago. Now up by three points, and double January.
The pause in housing between the first collision and second is elongated because of human nature. Someone desperate to buy a house is still desperate, and modestly relieved to buy even at a higher price and rate so long as not forced into an unlimited auction. Now it’s time for Wile E. Coyote in his Acme sneakers, running off into thin air and all okay until he looks down.

Looking down... MBS are such a weird market that other markets have not processed what is happening. Stocks are down 2% today, but would be down a hell of a lot more if considering what a full-stop to housing will mean.
Another marker of MBS distress: the 10-year T-note had held 3.00% since April, the important top in 2012 and 2018. Trading 3.05% yesterday, now 3.20% -- retail mortgages jumped triple that amount. The 10s/mortgages spread today is almost 300bps and double the 10s’ yield. Inconceivable. The Fed telltale 2-year T-note had held 2.70% since April, 2.85% yesterday, today 3.05% adding only one more .25% hike to the 2-cast, which is not enough to explain MBS overnight.
Today’s CPI Trigger. Markets were braced for a bad report, but not this. Overall CPI jumped 1.0% in May. Any thought of deceleration... ka-blooie. CPI 8.6% in the last year, accelerating under pressure from Ukraine energy dislocation.
Many observers this morning say that the CPI news is so lousy that there is no point in looking at the details. Wrong. From the onset of Covid to Ukraine, our inflation problem was supply chain, mostly manufactured goods. Since Ukraine, it has shifted to energy.
Different elements of CPI have different weightings, which conceal the effect of energy in a crisis like this. In May the energy index within CPI... up 34.6% in May alone. In an event like this, the notion of excluding the high-volatility “core” is meaningless. Everything requires energy. The uppers and soles of your Nikes are fossil fuel. Food has its own Ukraine issue, but energy is the problem, from fuel to fertilizer.
Oil was $75/bbl pre-Ukraine, then held just above $100, now $120. Natural gas from normal $4-$5/mbtu... since Ukraine $9. The May increase in fuel oil, $16.9%. May utility natural gas, up 8% in the month. You can see component-by-component, month-by-month CPI here BLS Table A.

Those Other Four Moments...
1. 1979, Saturday of Columbus Day Weekend, Paul Volcker announced that the Fed would allow the cost of money to float as high as necessary. Mortgages 11% on Friday, on Tuesday after the holiday 13%. However! That was 15 years into entrenched inflation, oil ten times as expensive in 1979 as 1972, and our economy just beginning energy conservation and new supply. All incomes ramped right along with inflation. The US economy was a “things” economy, with little overseas competition for union-heavy US labor.
2. 1994, February... the cost of money coming out of recession 1.00%, by year-end 1994 to 5.25% -- but in a disinflationary world, the cost of money was one-half the cycle peak four years before. 1994, February to May, mortgages from 7% to 9% -- that magic two-point rise flattened housing, and the Fed had to cut in 1995 to dodge recession. The new mortgage peak, stabilizing near 8% was down from 11% in 1990, and we enjoyed a genuine and rare soft landing.
3. 2007, July... you had to be deep in the mortgage racket to understand the first collision. Subprime and Jumbos went no-bid, and stayed there. The Fed was slow to understand the credit panic, began frantic cuts the following winter from 5.25% to 2.00%. But mortgages did not respond, stuck above 6.00%.
4. 2008, July... the no-bid expanded to all mortgages, even government guaranteed. The 10-year T-note anticipating recession and worse fell to 3.50% while retail mortgages rose to 7.00%. That 350bps spread is the closest comparable to today’s 300bps.

Simple enough for ya?

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Now What. At Thanksgiving 2008 the credit markets (all markets) were rescued by Ben Bernanke’s genius, announcing quantitative easing -- buying enough MBS and Treasurys to unlock markets in which all had been afraid to buy.
Today... is it a coincidence that MBS have blown simultaneously with the Fed’s flip from QE buying to allowing runoff and threatening to sell? The weak break first. MBS are weird, and weird under stress is weak.
The Fed has had a plan, Powell becoming more concise each day: We will raise the cost of money until inflation comes under control. “It is our job to calibrate demand to supply.” A good, tidy, sorta mathematic way to proceed. But destruction of demand has limits, and this morning we hit one.
In today’s US, nobody is prepared to deal with inflation as it has developed in the last 90 days. Inflation can drop and even stabilize above the Fed’s target, but the world is only three months into finding alternate energy for Europe’s oil and gas imports from Russia. Including natural gas, something like 15% of the world’s energy supply has been dislocated.
Perhaps half will quickly be redirected. India and China are buying at a deep discount from Vladimir, which makes available much of the supply which those two used to buy elsewhere, Europe lining up. But Russian production is already suffering, a net and permanent loss. Alternate supplies require alternate delivery, gas especially tough -- absent pipelines, all gas deliveries are dependent on scarce LNG ships and terminals. Coal normal, $50-$100/ton... today $395.

Perhaps half will quickly be redirected. India and China are buying at a deep discount from Vladimir, which makes available much of the supply which those two used to buy elsewhere, Europe lining up. But Russian production is already suffering, a net and permanent loss. Alternate supplies require alternate delivery, gas especially tough -- absent pipelines, all gas deliveries are dependent on scarce LNG ships and terminals. Coal normal, $50-$100/ton... today $395.
In this circumstance, the Fed’s demand destruction has all the wisdom of Xi’s zero-covid. In a rational world, if the party in power in DC were not encumbered by climateers, we would turn on the hose, take every step to unimpede production and delivery. Instead of threatening to tax windfall profits, we would offer incentive price guarantees to protect producers from the energy price drop certain to lie ahead. This is an energy problem, not some amorphous inflation amoeba.

Below the 10-year T-note in the last twenty years. In 2018 there were a few days with trades above 3.20%, so in theory 10s have not broken that critical support. Theories like that tend to last a few days. The Fed has to decide how much destruction it has in mind.

>you must show them

Jews

>why oil prices are so through the roof

They want you DEAD

how hard is that to figure out faggot?

Net Zero means >YOU are the Carbon they want to get rid of

If you dont like to eat the bugs and have electric cars you wont be happy until you are DEAD... Klaus ANALSWAB

theres not even an order for this shit

You need some context:
bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-4/pdf/the-2014-plunge-in-import-petroleum-prices-what-happened.pdf

So prices were somewhat depressed already. The botched response to covid drove prices even lower and killed a lot of domestic production. Then sanctions to the moon and a govt incredibly hostile to domestic production.

tl;dr Biden is a nigger

The jews.

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No one is drilling new wells according to my buddy who works in the industry. Its no longer profitable. But we dont have a replacement. So are fucked.

The dementia patient in the white house signed a bunch of orders that killed domestic production for at least two years, even if he grew a brain and undid it. That's what most retards don't understand--he CANT stop it now. It literally takes years to ramp back up.

But hey, more trannies and no mean tweets, right?

(No, homos, I'm not saying there is no domestic production. It's the roll in projects to cover the roll out projects that got fucked.)

Look up what happened with the previously approved (under Trump) Liberty BP/Hilcorp and Willow prospects in arctic Alaska. Spent years getting approval, massive prospects, indefinitely shut down once Biden elected.

These prospects were massive, JUST the Willow would have been 600,000,000 barrels of oil in the US and jobs/production for the next 30 years. There many of these types of massive prospect developments that have been shut down and will take years to revive the project now that they have been mothballed. There are thousands of smaller prospects waiting for BLM, BOEM, and other federal agencies to actually do their fucking environmental jobs and stop slow rolling things (like they are the ATF doing NFA background checks).

The closest example on how these massive projects that actually move markets work is the space shuttle... Once that shit is shut down it takes years just to turn the lights back on.

*no supply on market

and we have years of reserves and stopping plastics to cut more tress down.

money printer, go "brrrrr!"

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Oil is a globally traded commodity. When the pandemic was in full swing big oil didn't slow supply, even when facing unprecedented lack of demand. So crude went negative on the global market to -$33 or so a barrel. That's why gas was so cheap.
then rather than wait it out a bit OPEC+ cut production 10% and didn't account for a possible rebound when the pandemic eased up. Rebound happened, demand spikes but world events kicked off cutting production access. So oil demand is higher than ever, supply is lower even when production in the USA is set to hit record levels.
Big oil is just dragging their feet and racking what I assume will be record setting profits, like record setting to the level of no company ever hit before in a quarter. Most of the whines about Biden don't understand he doesn't set global prices. I guess one could argue that if the world didn't push back on the Russian invasion so hard gas would be cheaper. I mean go look up gas issues on youtube. There are full break downs by top econ professors and industry sorts. It's way more complicated than one one factor

So it's over.

I love how Americans label their immigrants as "Newburger"s

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I have friends in oil too and they said the same long before covid even. Fracking drove many out because it was productive. Dems helped shut all that down, covid helped shut it down because supply scaled to the lower demand, then a war and they're playing catchup and now they want to price control "price gouging" which would further restrict supply and set us in gas lines again just like good ol' Jimmy C did in the 70s.

The best was when gas lines were so long, cars in the lines were burning more gas than it took to get to the head of the line, then they were told they could only have a gallon because of rationing so they wasted all day to spend money and have less gas than they did when they got in line.

I have heard it said that far from playing around with price controls so they can make up narratives to blame R's they need to make supply even more lucrative with incentives instead of waiting for price to go even higher, but Dems are too stupid to do anything other than consider communist/socialist type destruction of markets.

All you lefty fuckers better strap in, it's going highest in the blue ghettos already.

russia sanctions mean europe isn't buying from them anymore. that means a shortage in europe. that means american companies are selling our production to europe for big price increases due to shortage. that means we have a shortage here, so they're selling it for more here too. this is because they are greedy fucks. biden has also put a hold on new construction but that's less an immediate cause and more something driving speculation for the future, but it still is contributing to the price hikes. but in the end it's mostly just greed.

how is it not profitable to drill when prices are this high

This is such a retard "logic"; Greedy oil companies were so greedy they kept selling their oil at -33 dollars for a loss but now that its $100+ a barrel they are restricting supply, selling less oil, to gather record profits...

I was working on a project involving land just adjacent to federal lands that would have still required extensive EISs from USFWS and BLM, my company gave up on the project and moved me to a project out of Ecuador because the federal agencies literally aren't doing their part of the "environmental" job.

>I just spent half my paycheck filling my tank
>Take that Putin!

That's because you're not really doing any research and only reading a bunch of faggots' shithead opinions.