Macro PhD here, the current economic conditions are suggesting that a global deep recession is coming, especially in US and Europe. Ironically, Chinks seem to be the only economy that will not be dragged down. I truly doubt whether our politicians work for CCP.
For US, it will be a deep recession. It is just inevitable now. The US economy is fine if the invasion of Ukraine does not happen and US cooperates with China over the economic issues initially. Now, it is gone, the supply side problem plus the surging of commodities will make inflation instoppable except a deep recession. This deep recession may have a relative smaller scale than 2008 crash. Fed's new monetary strategy is a joke, they are truly incompetent as fuck. Also, prepare the taxation increase or significant government spending reduction. Federal government cannot re-finance its 125% GDP debt with a low cost now. It would be much ugly than the Reagan recession. By the way, if they dont cut military spending, then prepare no more gibs. So, prepare social chaos. You cannot maintain this type fiscal policy with 5% nominal interest rate.
For Europe, they are totally fucked. Prepare a new round of euro debt crisis. PIIGS are totally fucked. They have very high debt but no dollar hegemony. So, they will go broke with 5% nominal interest rate. I would say even France can go broke. Euro is failure, now the inflation in Germany will destroy all other poor EU countries. I think we may witness the collapse of eurozone in the next several years. It is just impossible for them to avoid this crisis. They at least need 5% nominal interest rate to stop the inflation hike, which means the government cannot borrow to pay their 130~250% debt with very low cost for countries like Italy, Greece.
Woke up thinking about this, this morning. Three days in a row I've come across some news story which struck me in a kinda way that makes me think I need to pay attention right now. Not sure what I should be doing, if anything, though.
You're full of shit and the only macro.you are is a macrofaggot. China is a paper tiger and has zero future.
Hunter Perez
>PIIGS are totally fucked Don't be a opbtid faggot, redpill me
Joseph Stewart
their CPI inflation is 2.2%. you need to understand basic facts
Chase Garcia
China will crash and burn if their economy doesn't grow double digits.
Cooper Nelson
if your national debt to GDP is more than 100% and you have inflation problem, either government goes broke or more inflation coming to pay the seigniorage.
Germany will not pay the seigniorage. So Portugal, Greece, Italy, Spain are fucked.
Ethan Baker
She'll be right m8 Things will even out and keep going on just fine
Levi Morales
4-5% real growth, 9% nominal growth means they are stronk. Their CPI is low, so prepare new round Chink export invasion, which is actually happening
If they manage to survive the coming famine. China imports a lot of food.
Blake Nelson
you are honorary Germany now. So PIIGS becomes PIGS.
Charles Stewart
What could be the implications of this? How can the average guy prepare to control the damages?
Aiden Collins
Retard, they are hoarding food for almost two years.
Dylan Collins
>believes the CCP numbers Nigger, they cook the books well done. Even the GDP for individual regions is complete BS.
Chase Torres
They also had to slaughter massive numbers of pigs. Majority of world's pigs are in China.
Anthony Cook
your politics will become more extreme, people may want lira back. Just think about 2014
Hunter Turner
>smaller scale than 2008 crash
Are you sure you're an economist?
Isaac Roberts
Eurobonds
Julian Nguyen
Opinions about future here in Zion? Do we go down with europe?
Eli Diaz
How hard will I be vindicated for keeping a Trump bumper sticker on my car?
Julian Reyes
this is my hoap
Ethan Brown
a phd student who misspells the word unstoppable? doubt
also, there is no such thing as a macro economy phd, and even if there was, even normie fags can see the writing on the wall so if this really is the depth of your ability to foresee the future then you're a fucking waste of space
any motherfucker with an ounce of knowledge about western universities knows that they are teaching keynesian garbage still and their titles and lectures mean absolutely nothing
Henry Adams
you are honorary Germany.
Juan Jenkins
>Do we go down with europe? lol gawd no! (((You))) go down with the US When cancer kills the host, cancer itself also ceases
Angel King
Based knower of truths. My dude, the mountain jew is correct. I speculated CCP was heading food bcs they were planning on military action in Taiwan. This has been happening for 18 months.
Juan Wood
I care math, not words. I am not a cutenomincs whose only job is to the current thing
Jonathan Hill
>They at least need 5% nominal interest rate to stop the inflation hike this is keynesian garbage. you might actually be an economy student. either way your opinion is irrelevant and worthless
James Carter
You said it about Ireland as well. What does that mean?
Jacob Stewart
This is monetarist, or say New Keynesian. If the war does not end and US does not cooperate with China to pressure the oil producer, then I guess 10% nominal interest is possible, just like Volcker shock, despite the debt ratio then was 30%, now 125% for US
Leo Moore
Us, mongoloid asiatic hordes, oughta stick together - we’ll help a chink brother out. No mo cheap food for you tho.
Levi Perez
well managed fiscal position, aka understand that you need to pay your government debt one day.
Kevin Lopez
There's nothing you can do. Just shitpost, ply vidya, and enjoy your journey before it derails.
Camden Thompson
There are now 6 million empty homes in the Ukraine. > The UN says that as of 11 May, more than six million people have left Ukraine bbc.co.uk/news/world-60555472
Now the 'elite' of the khazarian ashkenazi have a place to go hide from what's coming they can cut the US budget to the state of israel leaving the remaining non-Ashkenazi Jews defenceless against the Muslim hoards which will be poked with a stick and encouraged to attack the Israelis thus starting ww3. This will give the evil ones the justification they need to bomb Jerusalem clearing out the Muslims and the mosque on the temple mount so they can finally build the 3rd temple for the Antichrist. An added bonus is the fake Ashkenazi Jews can surf on the holocaust of all the jews slaughtered by Muslims giving them another 100 years of sympathy and victimhood for something that they actually caused.
Zionism isn't jewish. It's freemasonic. Only the messiah can lead Israel (Celtic saxons) and judah back to the promised land. The state of israel was made by Rothschild. Rothschild wasn't the messiah. Nor are they Jewish.
Grayson Cook
not an econ user but I have read many times here that no country has ever come back from 80+% of gdp/ debt ratio. If have under that, things will be tough but you have room to survive crashes. Thing about israel is, you're dependent on US for security. If US falls on hard times, so do gibs to israel & also US influence (military muscle) is the only reason israel is tolerated. you could be one of those non-jews living in israel that lives there so not attacking you if that's the case but real talk, most of the world hates israel & it's totally dependent on US hegemony
Brayden Brooks
Yea? Did you go all-in on a leveraged broad market/index short then?
If not, why not? If you're so 100% sure you should.
Camden Richardson
Will this crisis bring into the public consciousness the question "Why is the public paying interest on currency that was willed into existence on a computer keyboard at the Treasury?"
Logan Johnson
"Mathified" economics is a joke. Mainstream economics is a joke. You wasted many years learning literal lies and irreal, useless shit, congrats.
Oliver Cruz
What does this mean for my shitcoins?
Robert Fisher
you can, just accept 10% inflation and bad economy for several years. Then you are OK.
Jackson Bailey
>you need to pay your government debt one day. You're definitely not an economist, you larping faggot
Kevin Stewart
"The people" is already regarded as politically irrelevant, here.
yes, it's garbage. you are being brainwashed by your professors. printing money leads to inflation, everything else just affects inflation velocity
Cooper Cruz
nothing is 100%. If US surrenders to Chinks and Russia, then I will lose all my money. I am not sure about these politicians. I will bet some money, not all and leverage. I am not retard
Carson Gonzalez
When rape is inevitable, it’s best to just lay back and enjoy it.
Austin Evans
Average citizen here. No shit a recession is coming. Didn’t need a degree to tell me that.
Austin Cook
because debt is governed by your military, no pay, then jail
Luke Cooper
ponzi game is ponzi game, only retards play ponzi game
John Campbell
if not, then why your government keeps a 60% debt to GDP ratio instead 600%
Blake Wright
No, until children learn this in school, but jews will not allow this.
Cooper Brooks
your country is so fucked by euro
Isaiah Murphy
LOL, a recession where everyone goes out to eat for every meal. I don't think you know what a real recession looks like.
Brody Sanders
That response is very buzz word. I detect LARP
Grayson Evans
It's never paid off, just rolled over You really know shit about economics. HS level at best
Evan Baker
I think Trump is inevitable in 2024 given the current economic conditions
