EU's oil ban kills Russia. Asia CAN'T replace the EU.
Russia's aspirational oil volume & prices = EU demand (1 billion barrels) + EU price ($120) $120 x 1 billion = 120 billion dollars. very roughly. other petroleum exports are banned too. dozens of billions of dollars. Russia's aspirational USD/RUB exchange rate? 75-95 $120 billion = 9-12 trillion RUB
Asia WON'T be able to replace the EU Asia wants LOWER prices than the EU Asia doesn't even want that much volume, it doesn't need it, it doesn't overspend on this. So Russia is gonna end up with LESS volume at LOWER (not higher!) prices
New added Asian volume: 300-600 million barrels Price: max. $70 lower is better (India is already negotiating this) 0.3-0.6 times $70 = max. 21-42 billion dollars but wait! the rubble exchange rate has also changed! putin, trying to curb inflation, kicked the rubble piñata to the other side and now it's too strong and they're receiving fewer rubble per dollar! only 60 RUB 21-42 billion = only 1-2 trillion RUB
21-42 billion dollars VS 120 billion dollars (from 2/3rds to 4/5ths of aspirational income lost) 1-2 trillion RUB vs 9-12 trillion RUB (80-90% aspirational income lost)
-100 billion dollars of income shaved, clean. MORE than -100B/yr since all other petroleum exports are banned by the EU too. and I didn't even mention how insuring Russian tankers or foreign tankers carrying Russian oil will be illegal. That's going to wreck Russian oil like it wrecked Iran -80% to -90% of aspirational income lost
In fact, Russian oil currently hovers around $70 and there are attempts to bring it even lower. Brent is at $120. But oil companies predict that the price will fall at least into the $90s by beginning of next year. India and China will want even cheaper oil, conversely. Bringing it ever closer to Russia's break-even point of $45 a barrel
Seething polecuck Ukraine is falling, despite all he weapons, money and training NATO has given them. Now the EU will face a long-lasting recession and another migration crisis. It's over for NATOcucks
Xavier Bell
>Asia CAN'T replace the EU. lol lmao it already has
Tyler Murphy
Russia won you fucking retard. They already won. The western economies are tanking..the Russian economy is doing fine. This is a shill thread.
Joseph Hall
So? Poorfags Will be poor? What change?
China will get cheap stuff, to compete with west... a west will go broke, cozz high cost... wow what masterminds you nato bros are... east is not fighting a battle, they are fighting a war, a long one
Isaac Rogers
>long-lasting recession and another migration crisis. r*ssia has a bigger problem with this than EU, lol
Colton Ross
oh look it's another delusional pole talking shit about MUH RUSSIA in approximately 2 more weeks Russia will crumble apart into a million little micro-states and it will all be conquered by the revived Poolish Commonwealth that will decisively rule all of Europe and Asia for the next 10,000 years 2 more weeks until we enter the 10,000 year period of uncontested Poolish hegemony over the entire world, yup, it's definitely going to happen this time
No matter what happens Poland won't be homogenous at the end of this conflict, your country is already gone.
Xavier Cook
You Russian nazi pieces of shit don't belong here. All you do is spread lies from false flags. Fuck off and don't come back.
Austin White
Cope harder retard.
Ayden King
>But oil companies predict that the price will fall at least into the $90s by beginning of next year. Oh no, only $90! Russia is doooooooooomed! >meanwhile in reality
You should worry about yourself, since you might not be around anymore by the time that price will (presumable) drop even this far.
>dagestani churka shill working for putin >meanwhile all the real russians hate the war you do realize after this war there will be civil war in russia? all those soldiers will come back with a grudge for sending their friends to die
Aiden Allen
> Asia WON'T be able to replace the EU Lol what is it now, 1967? You're typing this on a Chinese made device > Asia wants LOWER prices than the EU EU doesn't have a fixed price, Poland pays like twice what Germany pays and 50 times what Belarus does. It's called market. It works fine
Benjamin Gray
Yeah but I need fuel for the car tho and dont give a fuck about what happens in Russia, how does this benefit me in any way? Filling the tank cost me over 100 euros today
Brandon Diaz
Why come home to Barnaul when you can stay near a black Sea in Nikolaev with a military pension, empty nationalist house you can rebuild and a new wife?
