Ukraine's chance of winning

Do butthurtbelters actually think Ukraine can fend off this invasion? Do people not know how war/logistics/encirclement works? It's a matter of time before Russia succeeds.

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The Russians are going in full force right now. First, they exploit the frozen ground/cold weather. Second, they want to prepare for the inevitable next round of talks by winning some new positions.

They do have results, it's impossible to hold back this many tanks. A decisive victory however, is something they couldn't yet achieve (taking Kharkiv or Mariupol, encircling Kyiv). The Ukrainian brass looks at the situation realistically, they aren't attempting heroic tank battles, they let [Russian] armor move about. There is a bit of confusion here, since Bayraktar-videos thought to be authentic for days turned out to be not necessarily so. It seems the Ukrainians' tactics involve not wasting the Bayraktars' rockets and time in the air on tanks, rather they focus them primarily on command posts and supply columns. They don't really have another choice, you'd need to fly hundreds of drones to hit every tank with an anti-armor rocket, and at that point we haven't even considered other vehicles yet.

The Ukrainian tactics can therefore be summarized as not wanting to stop Russian advances, because they can't to begin with. They do want to isolate the areas where Russian forces have advanced to, cutting them off from supplies and their command structure. Meanwhile their [Ukrainian] infantry takes out 6-12 tanks per day in sporadic missions, just enough so that no tanker will feel safe. If I understand the news correctly, they're saving the more advanced Ukrainian units for keeping corridors open to encircled cities. At night they kicked out Russians from Volnovakha, which was taken over yesterday [by Russians], that way keeping some little pathway open to Mariupol.

The long-term effect of such actions (and by long-term we mean 8-10 days now) would be a situation where the Russians' takeover of [strategically] barren territory would come back to hurt them, because they didn't achieve strategic goals (taking over and cutting off cities), but now they have to maintain supply lines to forces dispersed across a huge area. This would deny the obvious strategic Russian goal to attack towards Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro from the areas of Kherson and Melitopol, which would cause East Ukraine to be cut off from the rest of the country.
If Ukrainians achieve that the Russian offensive ends up taking over [strategically] barren areas, then the Russians won't be able to reorganize their forces as to leave smaller forces behind to secure gains, and create a new offensive wedge. It appears Ukrainian tactics are very consciously based on certain mathematical rules about the critical points of networks and processes, also known as "Operations Research". This is the basis of modern logistics, and also the basis of paralyzing any logistics.

>Ukraine's chance of winning
0

On the Ukrainian side, a pre-requisite of this is continuous supplies, primarily of weapons and food, but lots of other things as well (e.g. medevac, medicine). Since West Ukraine can be considered safe aside from sporadic Russian attacks (not in the sense that people can rest easy there, rather that from the 100 tons of supplies you had in the evening, you'll still have at least 99 tons in the morning), the resupply of Ukrainian troops is possible. The Russian strike on the airport next to Lviv wasn't a mistake, the Russian brass is also a bunch of smart guys, who know how to make advancement/resupplying difficult. The thing they need to attack is rather far from them however, and they can only do it with rockets, since if they do it with planes, you'd need to fly right into the center of NATO-AWACS-directed Ukrainian air defense. Oh, and of course if half a wing reaches into Polish airspace... I won't continue this sentence, in any case there are two Patriot batteries sitting at Rzeszow airport.

We're about to find out what the offensive will be able to achieve, after consuming likely the entire Russian offensive potential. That's why they [the Russians] are playing on every instrument now, they're employing brutal methods, kidnap mayors, shelling hospitals, because once this offensive peters out, and its result will be the occupation of swampy fields, then Russians will be left with the choice to pull out, or to commit some insanity. There is 2-3 days of frost left, the mild weather returns afterwards. The situation is critical for both sides, because ammo and supplies are running out on the Ukrainian side as well, even if they have better logistics, and they don't need hundreds of tons of gasoline.

I'm not expecting talks in the next 2-3 days, rather further brutal battles, deaths and civilian casualties. In my opinion we are right now on the war's (protracted) lowest point."

>At night they kicked out Russians from Volnovakha
> that way keeping some little pathway open to Mariupol.

Where did you read this bullshit?

They actually did control the area for a bit, from what I saw, but it was temporary because there is nothing left of Volnovakha proper.

They've been fucked for weeks. Russia is the boss now. Get used to it.

if you genuinely believe Ukraine has a chance at winning then they are disturbingly susceptible to propaganda.
This is not some fucking disney movie where da resistance can hold out and defeat le evil empire because they believe in the power of friendship or something
Day 1 everyone with 2 functioning braincells knew that if NATO didn't intervene, Russia had already won, and the fact that people still believe the ukies have a chance despite seeing even the most pro-ukrainian map is hilarious but depressing

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>It's a matter of time before Russia succeeds.
two more weeks

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