Ukraine after the war

>Good news and bad news Mr Putin
>the Soviet Union has been restored, and the capital is Kyiv

>what would be the point if russia wants to make a buffer state?
Putin may not get what he wants.
3 is most likely if you ask me.

none of the above. russia will agree to withdraw in exchange for recognition of crimea and the donbass, plus vague promises of ukraine not to rearm.

That one feels the most likely to me. Ukraine cedes the seceded territory to Russia.

1

Crimea will not be let go by Russia like in 3/4. Ukraine too large to completely annex like 2.

>this is your brain on propaganda

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Somewhere between 3 and 4.

>Ukraine not re-arming

Fuck that.

If Russia is willing to settle for relatively minor concessions like that, the least they'd do is ensure a land bridge and control of the Crimean Canal.

That would seem sensible for the moment but also kind of a solution that leaves NATO looking weak while having the potential to become a cause of revisionism in Russia.

1 maintains status quo, thats my vote

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3 or 1, however 1 would not have NATO expansion stopped and Moldova is 100% going to try and preemptively protect itself via alliance at this point.
1 is also not a permanent win for Russia, their economy would be too bad to support a real war again. Ukrainians would overthrow them in another Afghanistan ontop of that.

well that's great and all but before russia takes ANYTHING... they kind of have to, you know, win a single fucking battle lmaoooo

NATO will never agree to it. They're more likely to ramp up support for Ukraine to ensure a better settlement at the table.

3 + Russian Balkanization

shill

In version 4's fantasy world considering how weak the Russian Pacific fleet is, I don't see why they could they prevent Japan from taking back the Kuril islands while the USA decide they want to own the last of those Aleutian islands in Alaska across from the coast of Siberia. Finland might ask for a land concession of winter war territory.

Zelensky's election campaign partially was built on the idea of sweeping the conflict under the rug and letting the Russians have Crimea and the sepratist regions in exchange for normalized trade relations.

Option 5: complete Polish conquest of Europe from Portugal to Kazakhstan

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Dose of reality for you OP

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This to some degree or Ukraine counterattacks and lays siege to Moscow for 15 months. The world sees this as Justice and does nothing. Muscovites are eating rats by month 3 and each other by month 7.

Why would NATO care about looking weak? Putin says over and over that NATO is much stronger than Russia, not counting nukes. That NATO is not weak is a given.
What they need to show is as much support for Ukraine as possible, but they also should be careful to at least make it seem like Ukraine is making its own decisions, to emphasize the point that NATO is a voluntary alliance and not an expanding empire.

I doubt they would be pro Russian either lmao

This would be the best outcome for Ukraine in the long term, outside of somehow winning and retaking Crimea etc, which seems impossible now.
People comparing this to Iraq/Afghanistan don't understand Russia will now be defending DPR/LPR and Crimea like its own clay.

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AKA Chinese victory

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whoever made these maps is a fucking paradox interactive brained retard

beautiful

Based and only the true answers. The more and more I see how incompetent Central Europeans are, the more I think that Poland should lead

I fixed it a bit, but they get connection to Moldova and they get to claim ALL the oil in the Black sea.

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Scenario 2
Its not unlikely its what is going to happen.

putin gets killed by his friends, then scenario 3

Imagine Russia calls US for help, "P-Please respect muh borders and sovereignty!!"

Why would Russia give Ukraine any of the territory that Russia already owns?

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>Why would NATO care about looking weak?
Because it has been failing for a number of years and Putin's whole point is trying to create a multipolar world. The failure of NATO is key to this. After the invasion the opposite happened and most of Europe woke up from their slumber and are now friendly to NATO again but if the Ukraine ends up getting conquered with little more than friendly words from NATO then it'll be a huge sign to the rest of the world. Putin may say he respects NATO but obviously he was banking on total apathy in the face of a 2 day invasion of some (in the eyes of the West) East Euro shithole.

3

Yeah remove Moldova occupied outside of Transnistria though. Why on earth would Russia take Moldova? Have any of you been there? Not in the cards at all, they'll just continue to occupy transnistria

3
Russia has failed to even meet the minimum expectations of a modern army.

NATO is clearly stronger than ever, and more importantly an integrated EU defense outside of the US based NATO framework seems inevitable. Both of these things were made inevitable and faster in coming by the invasion already. Nothing that happens in Ukraine now will change that.

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At this rate? Ukraine counter-invades Russia and it becomes the Ukrainian Federation.

6. Ukraine gets back the separatist republics but Russia keeps Crimea.

At this pace, Scenario 3 but also with Abkhazia and South Ossethia reintegrated into Georgia, Belarus' Lukashenko toppled, and possibly semi-independent Chechenya too.
Also Moldova regaining Transnistria and eventually joining Romania

Lmao nice try Ivan. The cities in the north haven't fallen yet. Major roads are not owned territory look at Afghanistan/Syria/Iraq.

I mean, fair, that's kinda what I meant but I'm lazy. I guess it would depend on the political meddling they do within it. Being a Russian satellite is basically the same thing.

Scenario 5: Everything west of the Ural mountains will fly the yellow and blue flag. The rest will be a chinese satellite state like NK.

I chose my version. Ukraine annexed but most of Europe fucked.

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>KHAZAR LAND
Gee I wonder who could be behind that post?
I
I>
I
I

The revival of the Kievan Rus.

#4 would be retarded even in Kaiserreich

Bullshit by people who don't understand the region.

He said vague. Think Japan. I think that's the realistic scenario. Chrimea and separatist states gain independence under strong Russian hand. Some sanctions against Russia will remain to save face, but all sides will be happy to let them be circumvented. Ukraine will eventually join EU, not NATO, but will maintain strong territorial defence force.

>Vatnik dream

Do you have any idea how many nukes UK and France have, alongside US bombs in Europe. UK would absolutely fire all 240 at Russia, France too.

delusional. Even assuming MAD isn't real, which it is, you think a limited exchange where Russia nukes every major city in Europe results in them taking two nukes back, not even in St Petersburg? aight man

They already had that before the war and Russia decided to attack

Also why the fuck are you nuking Edinburgh lmao

Ukranians are Russians. Also subhumans.
*Posts a language map and election results from 1895*

>40km column of vehicles out of fuel and starving to death north of Kiev
>lost Gostomel AGAIN
>getting stonewalled at Mariupol and Mikolayiv
>BTR-80s, T-72B3s, and Tor missile systems being stolen by farmers with John Deere tractors
>Pinya keeps sending VDV to die on unsupported paradrops
Who's the propaganda victim, again?

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Yes but after this conflict I very much doubt there will be any Pro Russian rhetoric for a very long time.

Scenario 5: Tsar Jeb
Decisive Jeb victory, from sea to shining sea

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You underestimate the cope Vatniks can muster.

>counting on any Russian tech being "effective" after this shitshow.
Half the critical components probably got sold on the black market years ago.

I think Russia keeps Crimea but is completely defeated in every other way.

I can't imagine amount of butthurt if Poland would get Lviv back,
1 or 3.
2 and 4 are retarded.

>you will see the CPRF and LDPR duking it out like the Reds and Whites did almost exactly 100 years prior
History doesn't repeat, but it sure does rhyme.

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I have a hunch if things got to this point, the US would drop so many nukes on Russia it would be like Chernobyl all the way to the Pacific.

>USA signs a deal with China to recognize Taiwan but get Siberia for free

>Russian SAM/ABM systems prove effective

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Thicc Ukraine looks nice

Kreml propaganda really has Vatniks writing embarrassing fanfiction like that. Apart from the fact that Russian WMDs are rotting away and most might not even launch, the resulting retaliation would ensure that the term "Russia" would be used in the same sense we say "Atlantis" now. A mythical country without any evidence it ever existed.

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>Poland annexes parts of Ukraine
literally neck yourself for being stupid enough to believe that could happen. It would end poland being in NATO immediately if that happened, nobody would accept Poland getting a piece of the action. Then what, Poland joins Russia? no

Nono, that at least seems normal in comparison with fucking
>Cyprus
Why?

5 ukraine gets back to pre 2014 borders, breakup of soviet union part 2 electric boogaloo after Putin gets Khaddafi'd by his cronies,

I picked spots half in jest, half real. NATO seems to be run by retards who want nothing more than to escalate things. Russia absolutely will shoot down any NATO jets that enter Ukraine, and (assuming the bio lab stuff is true) thinks they have a casus beli for war. From the look of things today, Poland wants to fly them over, get shot down, and get the USA and rest of NATO involved.
Any nukes will likely be airbursts FWIW and not have much residual fallout but it's enough to get people screaming.
If they're retarded enough to launch *everything*, so do we and the sun comes up at 9 PM. Most of us will be logged out of minecraft in the resulting 2 weeks and not have to worry about this any longer.

I diagnose Ivan with retarded Russ-Nigger Syndrome

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Scenario V

The war drags on. Russia begins supplying conscripts from less patriotic states. A surprise Easter Ukrainian counter-offensive takes Russia by surprise. The NATO supplied weaponry continues to have devastating effects. Recruits pour into the Ukrainian irregular army, and begin to push back Putin's general's positions. Panic ensues and Belarus is called on to intervene, but refuses. Taking this as a signal, a coup is attempted and foiled. Before parliament can move to act, they are dissolved. Putin orders the ICBM's to fire but staff mutinies. Putin calls in reinforcements to moscow.

Ukrainian battlefield supremacy leads to overwhelming Russian losses. Russian civilians are fleeing to Moscow, chased by the pursuing Ukrainian military, now joined by Russian irregulars and Russian Neo-Nazis.

Terrified, Putin orders all VDV to throw everything but the Mig-31 at the invaders, but it seems the supply of stinger missiles is inexhaustible. By May 02, the Ukrainians have entered Moscow and are greeted as liberators.

Putins timeline targets one of these days:

May 09 Victory Day

June 12 Russia Day

In the history books it will look like this:

In 2022, Mad Vlad Putin invaded Ukraine, and was defeated. In the process the Russian Federation was dissolved, and the constituent states reformed as the Russina commonwealth.

Given that,

>Russia is a federation of 86 republics, provinces, territories, and districts, all controlled by the government in Moscow. The head of state is a president elected by the people.

The question is how many of the 86 are they going to lose in the reformation, and does it matter? I'm thinking maybe a dozen detach and form their own governments.

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That would only be possible if Ukrainians to escape genocide voted to incorporate to Poland.
Poland wouldn't accept scraps from russia

i beg you to stop posting

They can't even shoot down Ukrainian jets and drones to maintain Air Superiority Ukraine against old as shit Russian tech, why do you think they could ever shoot down western tech lmao.

I don't think Russia has enough leverage to even get that right now. If they get that deal, Ukraine will have to be the ones that offer it.

scenario 6, the mass procurement on Ukrainian bananas spawns the rise of an army of super apes that conquer the Earth in simian harmony

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Request denied.
We don't have any evidence of them deploying assets, much to the chagrin of western planners and armchair ops alike. If their war-fighting really is as bad as it looks (occams razor), NATO getting involved is a nothing burger; and the biggest problem is $10 oil and $20 Big-Mac's because of disrupted Oil and Wheat production. IMO a lot of the pro-Ukrainian stories are just that- stories- and Russia is doing much better than expected. Taking losses yes, but "If you only knew how bad things really are"; ya know?
The only reason you hold back is if you literally can't deploy them (all is broken, maybe even their nukes are broken, etc.); or expect it to get worse and are keeping competent people in reserve. I'm leaning on the later until proven otherwise.

High food prices are not going to be a problem for the US, it's going to be a large problem for poor countries worldwide, and a minor annoyance for Euros

I think a realistic "worst case scenario" for Russia is
>Ukraine regains all territory
>All allies formally abandon them
>Belarus revolution happens and Belarus joins NATO too
Scenario 4 is just excessive. With Russian incompetence becoming more and more clear my bet is that only scenario 3 has a chance of happening out of these 4.

You're missing "Status Quo" where Russia keeps Crimea and the eastern areas become Russian.

Indirectly, higher fuel prices will get passed onto consumers at all levels, from manufacturing to the average fat burger at wal-mart. Food production itself will keep going even with fertilizer shortages (we make a LOT of food) but travel and supplies will be constricted. Poor countries are fucked- I don't know what India and pakistan will do

It is implied that the land is given to Poland by Russia