What are the chances that China invades Taiwan?

What are the chances that China invades Taiwan?

What would US response be?

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>chances
unlikely in the short term

>response
sanctions

No body knows, but I bet they are taking note to how everyone is punishing Russia, and how hard Ukraine is fighting back.
If Ukraine actually wins/some sort of regime change happens in Russia to try and get back in the rest of the world's good graces I wouldn't be surprised if China changes track as well and we get 100 more years of American supremacy.
If Russia wins and together Russia and China get a lot stronger despite the west throwing their bitch fit, then you can expect a lot more totalitarian trends and the end of the current American way of life. And at that point Taiwan will probably elect to join China peacefully.
Then you can pretty much say goodbye to international travel, democratically elected leaders, capitalism fueled leaps in technology and in turn say hello to a lot more war as Russia will have proved that it is viable in current times.
Anyway, what do you fags think I don't really know what the fuck I'm talking about but it really seems to be like that tho

their best window would be about 2025


USA will respond will military force, as they did in the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis

Waiting for the world to repatriate manufacturing, especially chip manufacturing, and losing the dependence and reliance, seems like a major strategic blunder. Waiting until they lose all their leverage and just get sanctioned to death seems really dumb.

>100 more years of American supremacy.
Nah. Russians stepping on their own dicks and China learning from that error does nothing to alleviate the problems dragging the United States down.

On chips, they're still making everything else. In fact, it just so happens that Western leaders are all talking about starting to transition to "green" energy sources with critical production chains that require Chinese natural resources and engineering.

The west is overreacting against Russia to signal to China. But the US is niggerfied now so it doesn’t have 100 years left in it.

they already control it so they won't take it violently.
its already ogre, muh mutts

>they're still making everything else
My point was, for now. If the West wakes up and starts to bring back all manufacturing, or moves it all to a more friendly India, China is pretty fucked. They have some gay ass plan that doesn't take into account the reality what what they should us they will do, via Russia. If China doesn't move up their central planning timeline, they are guaranteed to lose. Provided the West gets smart.

US has same response as ukraine
VOLUNTEER FOR TAIWAN
IM GONNA.... I- IM VOLUNTOOOOOORING

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My asian wife had tits like that before she got preggers. Beautiful beautiful tits.

Yes, and Taiwan presents profoundly more challenging terrain for an attacker, and the CCP is not at all prepared logistically to support transit of troops or their support once on Taiwan -- not to mention the problem of the Japanese military promising to wipe out the Chinese Navy if they make a move, no matter whether the US's Faggot Force Five takes enough time from sucking each other's dicks in the back row of their racial equity classes to get involved or not.

Booba

One thing I'm not sure is Taiwan doesn't seem nearly ready for an attack when compared to Ukraine. A lot of Taiwan people seem very complacent and 100% expecting USA to save them which really I'd give a US military response 50/50 at best

The U.S. might not have to do anything.
Invading Taiwan wouldn't be as simple as it may look. It's highly defensible. China would be humiliated if it tried and failed.

only a matter of time now the west won't go to war of them

I agree with this outcome. If Russia claims Ukraine in the near future, it’s going to set a new world standard and China might try for a land grab, potentially near India.
Fortress Taiwan is an expensive target. It may not be worth it, but they do control the vast majority of chip manufacturing, which is going to be really important for American smart bombs and the economy.
The west also has a deficit problem. They’ll do an amazing job at the start of the war, but things are going to get expensive quickly.

Taiwan is remarkably well prepared militarily, though they have not gone to the freak out level of teaching everyone how to use a rifle.

Cave shelters and bunkers for the population are prepared (this doesn't exist in Ukraine), every highway is marked and prepared to behave as airfields (to include all C2, fueling, repair, etc. are mobile), enormous numbers of anti-ship and anti-air missiles are on island and scattered around the region aimed at the Taiwan Strait (especially from Japan), BLS defenses and barriers cover every coast, etc.

I'd say they can make it quite a nightmare -- especially since the CCP has no real landing craft capacity. Their plan is to commandeer the entire eastern fishing fleet and force them to ferry the infantry across as they need to reserve the naval ships with landing capabilities for heavy equipment (they don't have anywhere near enough airplanes to manage airborne operations, and the terrain is horrible).

russia invades ukraine
>world implements the strictest and complete sanctions possible
>require expert lawyers to underwrite exemptions on oil and gas exports since EU is heavily dependent on it
>oil and gas is a significant export for russia
china invades taiwan
>world implements the strictest and complete sanctions possible
>require expert lawyers to underwrite exemptions on manufacturing exports since world is heavily dependent on it
>manufacturing is a significant export for china

the world can't do anything, globalisation makes us dependent on enemies, which they in turn can use to exploit. we gave up so much sovereign capability, and now we're arguing that it's too expensive to bring it back

What about the fact that there is only like two cities that China has to capture