WHY IS UKRAINE HAPPENING?

ATTENTION: THE POST IS LONG AF!!!

Explanation of Russian government’s actions from Russian sofa historian. (Sry for grammar mistakes)

February 24th was my birthday. My friends have a tradition to throw cakes and flour at birthday boys, so it was 5am, I was finishing to clean up my clothes when I heard of the ‘Special military operation’ beginning.

I was shocked and just couldn’t believe at first.

Now enough poetry, let’s get into question.

I personally expected Georgian war plot: we recognise the republics + let our army in —> peace, friendship, bubble gum, election credit points. As we see now - not at all.

What did make Putin to behave like that? Everything in history has it’s reasons.
Let’s see the possible ones:

1. THE OLD MAN IS MAD
Well, I guess I need to remind you guys that he remains in power for 2 last decades, and as we all know that there were enough people who tried to seize the power in Russia. They failed.
Why?

I won’t get deep into his bio (but it was interesting af. Let’s get to 2000).

Even the opposition can’t deny his actions at start were really smart. At the beginning he was considered as gigarich people’s puppet. What do we see several years later? He could make a deal with the most of oligarchs, some of them didn’t agree (google Khodorkovsky). Then he step by step surrounded himself with his old true-loving friends. All the big business and big official positions in Russia is know controlled either by his true-loving friends, either by the people who keep their mouth shut. So from the top of society he’s safe.

How does he get pretty vast people support? (don’t deny it, 40+ Russians support him pretty much)

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get ready for the globalist takeover Putin is just the boogeyman jesus we are fucked

your post is a piece of shit and doesn't say anything

Now I say shortly. Victory in Chechen wars, fake votes (attention: he knew that the protests won’t go too hard), puppet president, Georgia, fake votes again, Crimea and Olympics (2014 was the year when he was supported really much, not kidding), faked votes again (btw I personally participated at 2021 State Duma elections as promoter and observer and have tons of funny stuff to tell about it, let me know if you want to hear some).

Now we see that Putin is not stupid enough to think that Russo-Ukrainian war will be short, victorious (like Nicolas II did during the Russo-Japanese of 1904-5) and will give him people’s support. Then it’s something else.

2. ECONOMIC BENEFITS.

a) Coal. Well, Donbass coal is around free times more expensive then Kuzbass coal, even though it has to be brought from Siberia. So there is not really much benefit from Donetsk/Lugansk region.
b) The Black Sea gas. Well, this one is more perspective, but about 80% of gas we control along with Crimea. The decision to take another 20 by price of everything looks ridiculous.
The data I rely on is taken from open sources, I may be a bit wrong, but generally this is it.

Know let’s talk about sanctions. Russia is losing 200 gorillion eurodollars every second. All the Ukrainian resources may cost more than 200 gorillion, but their perspective is unclear (whom shall we sell it to?)

Finally, the third.
3. THE FEAR OF THE WEST
Imagine a picture. The 90s. Street shootings, constantly drunk “Boria-Alkash”, criminals, American hairy chicken legs, alcohol Royale (if u put it to stay for a week you’ll see 2 cm sediment), drugs, Yupi juice imitation, Chechnya war, 50$ salaries which were not paid for months, closing factories and other young capitalism things. I can continue this list for long.

You dont format your post like someone who comes to this website regularly

What did relatively young former KGB agent see while he was doing his funny things as St. Petersburg official?

First of all, that our New Western Friends support Russian inner separation, second of all, that the Friends still have NATO even though the Soviets are done, third of all, the Friends are expanding NATO (since 1999!)

Seeing this along with things I listed 3 paragraphs higher we can agree, that this stuff could effect his brain, couldn’t it?
What if he’s afraid of Yugoslavia scenario?

I’ll skip the stuff to 2014. And this is the moment when things start look strange to me.

I guess you’ve heard enough of 2014 Ukrainian presidential elections. Pro-Russian guy wins, anti-Russian guys resist, anti-Russian government is set. Ukrainian society is confronted like never before. Pro-Russian protest in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.

And this WAS THE GOD DAMN MOMENT WHEN THINGS THAT ARE HAPPENING TODAY SHOULD’VE BEEN STARTED. AND THESE THINGS WOULD BE TOTALLY DIFFERENT.

But he decided to not risk TOO much. Crimea, that was taken in a week without a single shot, thousands of people with Russian flags, nyash-myash… That looked spectacular.

The most of people were too impressed to notice that this action was not far-looking enough.

The Donbass story is much more dramatic. I won’t talk for long how simple taking Crimea was strategically, politically and legally. Shortly, Donbass was a mess. Russia couldn’t send help openly because of non-wanting of bigger escalation.

Putin’s solution to Donbass was just making it an autonomy in Ukraine. That didn’t suit neither Poroshenko, neither Zelensky. Also, Stoltenberg’s statement about Ukraine was heard.

Now u ask me: WHY did Putin decide to do it NOW? What does he want?

2022 is not 2014 at all. People don’t meet Russian army with flags anymore (not a big surprise). Ukraine is on fire. Everyone is scared.

What do I see?

I see people who look like Russians and speak Russian suggest Russian soldiers on Russian language to go fuck themselves.

Yes, Ukrainians who thought similar way existed way back to XX century but now they are the most of Ukrainians.

I spend all my free time of last four days checking the news from all the possible sources. While saying all I mean all.

I have relatives in Donetsk. My grandma’s brother. He died in 2020 but his children and grandchildren are still alive and still in Donetsk. While I was in Russian kind of boot camp for schoolboys we had sergeant from Chernigov, Ukraine. I’ll never forget his stories of how to better leave to Shaurma place so your commander doesn’t notice and how to pick up Moscow chicks. When I was 9 yo child I had a friend from Sumy, Ukraine. Btw I liked his sister pretty much. While I was at school I had classmate from Odessa. Such a positive fat boy you know.

Just can’t believe that now we are fighting people just like these.

How could that all since 2014 even happen? Hand of West? You may laugh, but for me that sounds reasonable.

Did I want this war? No.
Do I support Russia? I always will.
Are we the bad guys? Not sure.

Sorry for too much emotions. Can’t hold them inside.

Let me know if you want to know something else.

>Let me know if you want to know something else
Do you think the Ukrainian government is a corrupt western puppet?

You’re right, the problem is that I don’t know any place else where I could post that and be heard

Well, there was already a base for that kind of government even before the SU collapse. After 24 years of propaganda that government got larger support among people, after Crimea and Donbass propaganda is not even needed anymore