Do ppl like matt walsh actually believe the shit they say or is it just for money and attention from lead-poisoned...

Be wary of falling into the trap of assuming that all transphobic talking heads like Walsh are also evangelists, or you'll be blindsided by non-evangelical bigots as a consequence of your hyper compartmentalized worldview.

Matt Walsh is a hostile bad faith actor who wants you to die

It's lucrative and provides laughs to its target audience. That alone makes it not too wacky. Worthless maybe, but not that wacky. But I'd say it does illuminate at least a little. You can say it's selective editing all you want, but some of those people were clearly unhinged and shouldn't be in their positions.

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People like Walsh or Shapiro are most likely to be cynical actors but there are a lot of true believers
The base absolutely are borderline feral devotees. They’re ultimately the cause of this all, those most popular are those who pander best, and the base are the ones you have to worry about and stay away from

The sheer amount of blatantly falsified information in his latest flic makes it pretty obvious he does not genuinely believe it. How disingenuous do you have to be to claim that there's not a single non-western tribal culture that has non traditional gender roles lmao? You get about 5 seconds into studying indigenous cultures before you get to the nonbinary shit

Most of the tribal 3rd genders are just "designated faggot gender" for MtFs, gays, and all other failed males.

A lot of those non-traditional gender roles are just separating out non-conforming men, rather than believing they're actually women. And I don't think their beliefs have much value. Putting Two-Spirit on official documents is incredibly lame.
Yeah. For a lot of Native American tribes, their word for it meant something like "A man who dresses as a woman." Not exactly modern gender ideology.

This, historically third genders are for societies that haven't used monogamy to solve the hypergamy issue and have to deal with the fallout of all the failed men.

So historical FtMs aren’t a thing? Genuine question

There have been women that disguised themselves as men to do things they weren't normally allowed to do. I'd imagine you can find examples of women that lived socially as if they were men, but I doubt people seriously entertained the idea that they were actually men.

there are but they're outnumbered by mtf analogs. for example the Mesopotamians had ftms but we know very little about them.

Definitively? There's probably lots of biological women who were part of their society's "third gender". But it wouldn't look anything like our concept of "FtM" transgenders, and there would be dramatically fewer of them than male members of the "third gender". And several specific individual societies had "third genders" which were exclusively made up of failed castrated (physically or metaphorically/socially) men. Historical non-conforming genders were much more akin to eunuchs than transgenders.

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There were FtMs, but as exceptions, never as established "gender" the way f.e. the hijra are.