Part 1/2 China will not survive the 2020s as a political entity; it will only exist as a description on a map. They have the fastest aging population in world history, a likely population peak in 2022, money printing that puts US QE to shame, an economy focused on employment instead of markets or efficiency, and on and on. China is a paper tiger. Estimates are that by 2050, the Chinese population is half it's current size... and that's before the coming famines in late 2022 and beyond that will kill hundreds of millions of people. The government will collapse under the pressure, which would accelerate the population decline as China's various regions fight for scarce resources in a massive civil war. Add to this that they are facing the highest energy costs in the world and, thanks to the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions, will quickly de-industrialize from a lack of oil.
China’s current economic model is not sustainable. That model favors employment over all other concerns, and can only be maintained by running on thin margins. Eventually, manufacturing margins turn negative. The Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. The war makes that impossible. Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2030 the average Chinese will be nearly as twice as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage of epic levels
Part 2/2 China's "push to develop their tech sector" is about 95% squandered resources, 4.9% copying, and 0.1% actual innovation. SMIC is the last attempt at chip fabrication standing and they are well behind TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. Arguably they're even behind Global Foundries which dipped out of high-end chip manufacturing. They're basically 20 years behind at this point.
Chinese are also sick in their heads, a toxic, barbaric, soulless, brainless and broken society. Utterly incapable of innovation and creative thought. They will do nothing to actually fix their problems until the Collapse comes.
In terms of military power, China is and will continue to be a paper tiger. Corruption is rampant, no better than Russia's military (where many of the reactive charge systems on their tanks are nothing more than cardboard). Their navy is much less powerful then Japan, France or Britain, despite being larger, same for their air force. They are generally 20-50 years behind in most areas of technology as compared to the West.
Read Peter Zeihan's books or watch his videos. You can find them free on the Internet. China won't have military power in the next decades. They don't have a blue water navy and can't source oil. China exists because of the US. Once the US withdraws support, China will implode. It's likely that by 2025, China won't exist as a country. Maybe a rump state, but not a country.
>the chinese property bubble WILL burst, only 20 more years now!
Aiden Garcia
Heard this promised a million times. I thought china's economy was supposed to fall in 2015 oh wait, 2017 no no 2020 is it. Wait I changed my mind again
Aaron Hernandez
Chinkcels absolutely boiling It’s over
James Lopez
>China will not survive the 2020s as a political entity; it will only exist as a description on a map. >It's likely that by 2025, China won't exist as a country. Maybe a rump state, but not a country. Anti-Chinatards are literally sick in the head Yeah they're facing challenged in the near future but they're not going to fucking implode and be reduce to rubble within three years, more likely it'll be like Japan's slow decline in the 90s.
Christian Jenkins
i can assure you 2022 is the point where the actual collapse will start it is a milestone because both china and korea are experiencing population decline
if china collapses, america will definitely collapse as well. everyone collapses
Hudson Lee
It's kinda like Germany saying they won the war in 1940 really
Blake Cruz
Yeah but what would be -50% for China would be like -20% for US and Europe, and US is the only one that would be able to recover
Connor Bennett
Of course the rapid aging and lack of babies will hurt , but Japan is still around. These types of conditions cannot last forever.
Luis Myers
You posted TWO MORE WEEKS here yesterday too. Give it up and chew some gum user.
Brody Collins
>Gordon Guthrie Chang (born July 5, 1951) is a columnist, author, and lawyer. He is the author of The Coming Collapse of China in which he attempted to predict the collapse of China and claimed that it would collapse by 2011. In December 2011, he changed the timing of the year of the predicted collapse to 2012.
japan's birthrate has been declining smoothly in comparison to both countries and it already accumulated enough financial assets to get by in the future since it has more than 4 trillion dollars worth of foreign investment which is astonishing for its population size. not to mention japan's birthrate is actually recovering.
Hunter Howard
and it's still nose diving to the ground by 10 percent in the first quarter of 2022
it probably reached 0.95 or so considering tier 1 cities like shenzen or shanghai scored less than 0.6 last year in 5 years east asia will face the recession that japan has been struggling with for more than 30 years in a much more compressed, severe form, leading to its total collapse.
Sebastian Myers
China itself isn't going anywhere. As some have said, China is a civilization masquerading as a country. The question is will the CCP survive.
Carson Fisher
Why dont they just kill people when they turn 70 if they dont have at least 4 grandkids and seize their assets lol
Zachary Wood
A big part of it is what said, the fact that it happened gradually enough for Japan meant they could prepare for it. Japan is also a ridiculously wealthy country.
