What is the most realistic outcome for Taiwan?

what is the most realistic outcome for Taiwan?

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Nothing happening. People in the west don't seem to understand this but it's just an east asian thing to openly promise the destruction of your enemies and never actually do it. Because it's not about international relations, it's so that you don't look weak in the eyes of your countrymen. You can never back down or you lose face
It's the same reason North Korea always sabre-rattles, if you don't put on the tough guy look then people will think you lack the strength to lead

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I thought the same for Russia but look what just happened. Now I don't know what to think.

Nothing is going to happen
China doesn't have the balls to invade
Even if they did invading Taiwan would be extremely hard due to both the mutt military stationed in the motherland and Korea AND natural defenses.

okay but put a realistic date on how much longer taiwan exists as it does now.

You can be damn sure they're watching Russia now and taking notes.

I give it 10-20 years before they try to pressure you into accepting "voluntary" reunification with the Mainland in some quasi-HK-style arrangement. Maybe sooner depending on how fucked our politics gets.

literally forever

Our goverment is retarded, unlike China's.

very optimisitc

Explain hong kong then

tungming kingdom capitulated to the qing in 1683. the idea that taiwan can be independent forever is a pretty big stretch. it is after all a fairly small island, will be annexed by someone when the time is right.

taiwan is not hong kong
taiwan has never been under prc control at any point in history

Simple, Hong Kong was ulitmately not taken over through military force but by the passing of a law that made it next to impossible to criticize the CCP. That worked there, i don't think it can work in Taiwan because the KMT, which is the CCP shill party these days, is not im power. Taiwan was more open in the past to accepting a "one country two systems" deal like HK but after 2019 they said no fucking way because they saw how that would turn out.

Nothing, unless they provoke them in some moronic way like declaring independence.

how different would the world be if GB decided to not give HK back to China?

Annexation of west taiwan and unbanning kpop fagboys and other stuff

is it the same in Taiwan where citizens agree with Xi and think they should be reunified? Or are most all in agreement that they want nothing to do with China

China would have taken it by force, they knew that at the time which is why it was handed over.

We would be in breach of our lease

nobody here wants anything to do with china except the old dinosaurs that will die in the next 20-30 years

they;re fine shut up

Probably would've been in violation of international law if they didn't give it back. You have to keep in mind, China under Jiang Zemin is not the China of now, neither was Hu Jintao's China.

Plus for anyone that hasn't been there, Taiwan is a fortress. Even ignoring that an amphibious assault of that scale would take months and everyone would see it coming long ahead of time, China would take insane casualties in trying.