There are 3 doors. Behind 2 of the doors, there is a goat. Behind one of the door is a prize.
I select a door at random (lets say I pick door 1). It is then revealed to me that door 3 contained a goat.
Now, I am offered it I want to change my selection. Do I have an equal chance of winning the prize regardless of the door I pick, or will one of the doors give me greater odds?
Pick the 2nd door. Your odds are doubled.
>If door 1 is a goat, the host is forced to pick the other one with a goat
>If door 1 is the prize, the host can pick either door.
But there's 2 doors left so its 50/50
_ ____ __ ____ ____ ____!
There is no third door.
It's simple to explain.
At the start you have a 33% chance of picking the right door. Once a bad door is eliminated, you think you then have a 50% chance. But you actually don't, because you picked it at 33%. If you switch, you then have a 50% chance of getting it right. A true 50%.
The reason the scenario confuses people is because they think once it's down to two doors, both doors have a 50% chance of being right. But your earlier choice has to be factored in.
It's not like the 33% odds of picking the correct door on try 1 are remote.
I want the goat though
before you had 1/3 chances of picking a prize so you most likely picked a goat, so if you change doors now, the likelihood of you getting a prize should be 2/3
Switching changes your choice from a loss to a win and vice versa. Since you had a 2/3 chance to lose at the start, switching gives you 2/3 chance to win.
The earlier choice is independent though.
You know what acquired taste is? You eat shit but people praise shit and with time you accept shit as something tasty.
Same with probability. You accept that it's 1/3 for your door and 1/2 for another door.
Where did the rest go to fill 1? Nobody knows, nobody cares, don't ask questions.
B
probability isn't calculated by choice over possible choices
it's calculated by outcome over potential outcomes
there are not 2 potential outcomes, there are 3. and you win in 2 out of 3 outcomes when you switch doors.
you always change the door.
math agrees don't fucking respond to me.
This scenario is only confusing because there are 3 doors
Imagine the same thing except there are 100 doors and after you choose, 98 out of 99 of them are revealed to have goats and you're asked if you wanna switch to the last one
of course you're gonna say yes, same thing here
There are not three potential outcomes though, one of the doors is always removed. You either pick a prize or pick a goat. The third door is misdirection.
The goat's ass is obviously behind door 2
If there's a lot of doors then your chance of picking the correct one first time is slim, so swapping is practically 100% chance of winning.
With 3 doors there's a real very chance you picked the correct door first time.
>there are not 2 potential outcomes, there are 3.
But you are being offered to change your choice. The new question is about two doors, one of which has a goat behind it. What you're saying would make sense if the question was "There are three doors, you can pick two to open." Instead of picking one, then being offered a second chance.
VIDEO GAMES???
You are more likely to win if you take the option to change door.
I don't give a shit about your schizo "what if" scenarios. The host is not trying to cheat you.
There is a 1/3 chance of you picking the correct door on the first try. Which means that there is a 2/3 of you not picking the correct door on the first try.
When the host reveals that one of the doors that you didn't pick has a goat you effectively get to choose between a 1/3 and a 2/3 chance door.
Anyone that says otherwise is just a contrarian or a brainlet.
What if there are only 2 doors
the goats are the prize
>Do I have an equal chance of winning the prize regardless of the door I pick, or will one of the doors give me greater odds?
Your wording sounds deliberately retarded and confusing which it is
fixing that for you:
>Do i have a greater chance of getting the price when switching to door 2?
yes
i hope 90% in these threads is only pretending to be retarded.
Is it cheating if you read about it before and know the math behind it? It's 50%
Looks like you have some Complex Motives there.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING MATTER WHAT YOU "PICKED FIRST" IT'S AN INDEPENDANT EVENT AAAAHHHHHHH RETARDS ON V
The odds didn't change so it's a coin flip.
what you're actually doing by "switching" is picking the bigger side, in OP's case is 2/3 in mine is 99/100, the concept is the same it's just made much more obvious
the fact that a goat got revealed in one of the two doors is irrelevant, because a goat had to be there anyway.
I don't switch. I already have a car. I don't have a goat.