>akctually normies know about the 4 year cycle now so we’re never gona crash again because everyone will hodl for the next halving in 2024, so that means bitcoin is going to the moooooooon
Except that’s not true, if you believe this, you do understand if everyone thinks the 4 year cycle is just going to keep happening because of everyone being aware of the next block reward being halved in 2024 that the 4 year cycle will be invalidated, right? Or did you actually think everyone is going to get rich together? Seriously????
Almost 19 million of 21 million coins are already made.
Halvings won’t have as much of as impact anymore as you think they will. Not just because it’s halved, but because most of the supply is already mined, and as I said in my original post, Bulltards know that all normies know about the halving now, which means it is one of the only things that’s realistically priced in way before 2024
Nathan Gutierrez
>Or did you actually think everyone is going to get rich together?
yes, permabulls do believe that
Jeremiah Wood
>Hurr durr i know stuff therefore i can expect the market Stfu
Mason White
Who says it gets the parabolic runs anymore either? Especially from halvings which are less relevant each time?
Its true. We wont get the same crashes anymore cause everyone thinks its a sure thing to le accumulate le bear market. We also wont get the same growth.
Not accommodating for anything genuine adoption based(becoming legal tender, and even gov bonds created based on BTC) i wouldn’t even expect us to break 250k till like 2028. Its going to grow much slower and get less volatile.
Landon Gray
We need 1 last blowoff top as institutions fomo just like the dotcom bubble
Logan Sullivan
Maybe? Its hard for me to hold that when i don’t believe we are getting the same 85% corrections and bears in the form we used to anymore either. Stock2flow meme got normified cause it “worked” enoigh times for them to consider it “a sure thing” so the inverse is these “acoooomelate the bear” has also gone that way too.
The price action last year solidified it. It has actually never done anything remotely similar before. It wont be doing things similar to the past either. The game theory has changed.
Maybe we get a smaller “blow off the too” now? But is it really a blow off if it hits 120k or something in dec when its was 66k 1.5 years prior? Thats a 2x in 1.5 years. Thats not really a blow off in previous BTC terms.
Cooper Barnes
You’re probably right the definitions changed I guess all we can ask for is for it to hopefully keep crabbing upwards Maybe if the looming doubt and indecisiveness fade off we’ll see stronger upside
Nicholas Reyes
I firmly believe it. I’ve been here since 2015. Seem two bubble pops(3 if this counts) and its nothing like last time. Same idiots take this as a sign it has far to go down still. Not why imo.
The past two times there were LOTS of people who actually Thought BTC would die or go to 0 this time. This was a worry of bulls(even me as i accumulated) and a lot of bears logic for “shorting the ponzi”. You’d read this rhetoric almost daily.
Now? I have not read anything close to that or even remotely like that for way over a year. Bulls suddenly arent worried even if it crashes more, that it could finally die, and bears think it will go down not for that rhetoric anymore. They think it will go down so they can accumulate like it used to. Can you not see the fucking twist in narratives?
Thats why i dont think it can possibly behave like it used to anymore.
Cooper Morris
>We need 1 last blowoff top as institutions fomo just like the dotcom bubble says who?
Jacob Wright
>Thats why i dont think it can possibly behave like it used to anymore. pic related
A judge tells a condemned prisoner that he will be hanged at noon on one weekday in the following week but that the execution will be a surprise to the prisoner. He will not know the day of the hanging until the executioner knocks on his cell door at noon that day.
Having reflected on his sentence, the prisoner draws the conclusion that he will escape from the hanging. His reasoning is in several parts. He begins by concluding that the "surprise hanging" can't be on Friday, as if he hasn't been hanged by Thursday, there is only one day left - and so it won't be a surprise if he's hanged on Friday. Since the judge's sentence stipulated that the hanging would be a surprise to him, he concludes it cannot occur on Friday.
He then reasons that the surprise hanging cannot be on Thursday either, because Friday has already been eliminated and if he hasn't been hanged by Wednesday noon, the hanging must occur on Thursday, making a Thursday hanging not a surprise either. By similar reasoning, he concludes that the hanging can also not occur on Wednesday, Tuesday or Monday. Joyfully he retires to his cell confident that the hanging will not occur at all.
The next week, the executioner knocks on the prisoner's door at noon on Wednesday — which, despite all the above, was an utter surprise to him. Everything the judge said came true.
Gabriel Evans
Thats an awful paradox. Its immediately obvious they will just pick any random day and do it. All his head canon is his alone
Ethan Stewart
>Thats an awful paradox. Yet you are the one using it here
Matthew Brown
>Bulls suddenly arent worried even if it crashes more, that it could finally die
This is why I sold, because bulls have become insufferable and delusional
Christopher Ward
over time lost coins will be a big factor in increasing rarity as hodler people die and from careless loss of coins
Ian Turner
You assume im excluding a black swan event. Im not. Im just not a complete utter retard who literally factors a black swan event into analysis or worse depends on it being a reason it will crash like bears. That shows a lack of understanding of what a black swan event even is.
And using that pradox as the basis for a crash shows a lack of understanding it too, because you are starting with the assumption it definitely will happen as per the hanging in the paradox. This may not be tue case anymore just like the blow off the top is likely no longer a “sure thing”
Jayden Lopez
Bulls still think a blow off top is coming and that the cycle is extended
Thomas Jenkins
Btw i dont rule out 25k or so. Indont consider that the basis of this discussion. Im talking how many take an 85% or so crash as guaranteed when clearly the game theory has dramatically changed
Charles Roberts
Guess what? Those bulls will be as disappointed as the bears who think they can accumulate after an 85% crash. Thats the point
