/GPG/ /SG/ Geopolitics General #2393 - Fall of Izium Edition

Palestine, Syria, Ukraine, Taiwan, Libya, Iran, Mali, Caucasus, Yemen, Ethiopia, Burma, Socotra, and other geopolitical happenings, as well as soup, pipelines and robots. /ug/, /sg/, /cwg/, /o/, Any Forums, /osint/, /ck/, /tg/, /k/, /soup general/, (NOT /ipg/)

NEWS
>Ukraine/Russia
Russian soldiers are encircled in Balakliya
>Syria
Syrian president signed decree on large demobilization of the army, The unprecedented discharging order indicate that the next phase will be political and not military.
>Iran
The nuclear deal is on the verge of being signed as the "thorniest issues" have been cleared. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iran-backed forces clashed in Syria this week.
>Iraq
Protests and clashes broke out in Baghdad on Monday evening, carrying into Tuesday morning, and leaving at least 30 dead, after influential Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr announced his resignation.
>Ethiopia
The ceasefire between the Ethiopian goverment and the TPLF has collapsed and fighting has resumed in the north of the country.
>Somalia
Al-Shabaab Boasts 170 govt official casualties in Hayat hotel raid.

>Live maps
conflicttr.com/
southfront.org/category/all-articles/products/maps/
marinetraffic.com/
globe.adsbexchange.com/
defensepoliticsasia.com/ukraine/
liveuamap.com/

>Twitter sources
nitter.net/espiritv1
nitter.net/clashreport
nitter.net/bilalkareem
nitter.net/disclosetv
nitter.net/archer83able
nitter.net/LindseySnell
nitter.net/suriyakmaps
nitter.net/abduljabbar1612

>Conflict maps and reading list
pastebin.com/UCqfbpQn
>Official /gpg/ games
gaming-style.com/WarAttack/index.php?page=Game
lichess.org/

PT

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No /sg/ yesterday?

absolute madness. how do you fuck up this bad

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I still can't quite believe that this happened.

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>shot
Yeah, by the Germans

This guy wasn't.

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Cuck warfare at its finest. Putin should be shot for incompetence alone.

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if only jewtin had mobilized...

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The US gave good intels, attack right at the good spot

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russians are really stupid but i reckon its because they aren't fighting to win but to keep ukraine in a permanent state of syria-dom

as long as they remain in war that means they have propaganda to dish out and keep any investments out of ukraine therefore retain their gas & oil monopoly over europe

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Still, an attack from that direction was very predictable. Some Russians were even able to predict it but only shortly before it happened and they didn't make much of a fuss about it.

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Is it worth the cost instead of just conquering the industrial and energy rich regions outright?

Russia should just flatten them and be done with it, I am tired of this gay war. I got a kid coming and I dont want him to get cold, so I got to pay thousand of euros this winter ffs

>costs
considering all countries operate a fiat economy it costs nothing for them to create artificial demand for more military-industrial complex production, which creates more demand for research and development in the same field. if anything they are actually gaining on that front

There is no more oil and gaz monopoly tho

it's almost ogre

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>its because they aren't fighting to win
erdo, I don't even know how to reply to this. Kremlin planners are birdbrains, not masterminds who can turn a 1905-style military defeat and humiliation into a geostrategic victory

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Fucking off from Izium is the smartest thing they could have done, should have been done a long time ago. Their position to the South of Izium was disadvantageous to say the least and they clearly didn't have enough forces there to improve their position substantially.

Yet that makes the objective to eventually take all of Donbass much harder without being able to strike against that axis. It's a disaster, Russia at best may need to settle for a peace where they just retain Luhansk or at worst lose it all since again, they willfully don't have manpower in this war.

incompetence can explain things but after a certain point there has to be something else to it